July 27-31: Dow, NASDAQ Creep Up; Solar Drops 5.8%

Dow's best month since Oct. '02

The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its best month in nearly seven years, posting an 882-point boost since Friday, July 3. In fact it was the best July for Wall Street in twenty years. Gains for the week for the Dow and NASDAQ were meager however, with both gaining less than a percent. The 20SSI decreased 5.8% from last week's close but the net gain since July 3 was nearly 22 points.

Company earnings and earnings outlooks continue to lead the surge on the major indexes. The big gainer for solar this week was Entech Solar which announced "successful completion of the preliminary design review and prototype of the next-generation concentrating solar product, ThermaVolt II." The company is also completed preliminary design for a tubular skylight. To be frank, many solar investors may have decided to take short-term profits on the terrific gains made in the industry earlier on the month.

Being active in the solar business, this blogger sees renewed interest in PV systems as the summer gets hotter in California and can last into November. Power rates are high and demand shoots up with the gross necessity of air conditioning--especially in the inland deserts which are getting more inhabitants resulting from cheaper land. Places like Palm Springs, Palm Desert, Indian Wells and Indio are beginning to see some serious traffic. There is a thriving town called Ridgecrest farther north with its own solar-powered junior college. Ridgecrest is 17 miles from Death Valley, the hottest spot in the contiguous 48 states. Inland desert temperatures range from 98-123 degrees in the hot months and the AC required to stay comfortable can result in electricity bills that look more like mortgage payments. ROI for solar installations here is quick and painless.

(Picture: A parabolic trough array in the California desert near Victorville.)

Week of July 27-31, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	9093.24	9171.62	+78.38	+.8619%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	1965.96	1978.5	+12.54	+.6378	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.41	1.3101	-.0999	-.0763	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	5.56	5.74	+.18	+3.237	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	13.19	13.80	+.61	+4.625	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	15.57	14.54	-1.03	-7.084	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	15.22	14.24	-1.03	-7.084	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.1900	.2300	+.0400	+21.05	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.34	2.10	-.24	-11.43	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	169.43	154.39	-15.04	-9.741	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	6.16	6.20	+.04	+.6493	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	5.32	4.81	-.51	+10.60	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	78.83	80.17	+1.34	+1.699	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	11.81	10.94	-.87	-7.952	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	18.74	17.62	-1.12	-6.356	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	6.20	5.45	-.75	-1.376	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	1.80	1.89	+.09	+.5586	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	7.50	7.20	-.30	-4.166	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	32.04	32.20	+.16	+.4993	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	20.49	18.39	-2.10	-11.42	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	31.10	28.26	-2.84	-10.05	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	15.10	13.27	-1.83	-13.79	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 458	Current 432.75	Change -25.25/-5.8%	Avg Stock -3.208%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Consensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

July 20-24: Solar Surpasses Dow, NASDAQ

Overall market sees second straight great week

The 20 Solar Stocks Index (20SSI) gained 65.5 point to finish at 458 points this week, a 16.69% increase from last week. The solar index outperformed both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ which finished with considerable gains of their own.

The Dow finished above 9000 points for the first time since January 2 with a rise of nearly 350 points. Added to last week, the DJIA has rocketed 947 points since July 10. The Dow has gained nine of the last ten trading days. Percentage-wise the Dow and NASDAQ have run neck-and neck in the past two weeks. Good quarterly earnings reports from many public companies has added more summer sunshine on Wall Street.

Solar stocks were lead this week by SunPower surging a gawdy 8.75 points to finish today at 32.04 a share, nearly a 38% rise. LDK Solar, Solarfun, SunTech, Trina Solar and Yingli all rose in the 20-30% range. Only MEMC Electrical failed to gain for the week albeit down a measily 2 cents per share.

Reuters reported today that SunPower just announced better-than-expected earnings while China's LDK Solar raised its sales forecast. The other large gainers, said Reuters, likely came on the coattails of the SunPower and LDK surges.

Week of July 20-24, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	8743.94	9093.24	+349.30	+3.994%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	1886.61	1965.96	+79.35	+4.205	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.11	1.41	+.30	+27.03	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	4.94	5.56	+.62	+12.55	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	12.67	13.19	+.52	+4.104	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	13.90	15.57	+1.67	+12.01	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	12.98	15.22	+2.44	+17.25	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.1700	.1900	+.0200	+11.760	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.06	2.34	+.28	+13.59	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	144.55	169.43	+24.88	+17.21	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.44	6.16	+.72	+13.23	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	4.48	5.32	+.84	+18.75	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	72.96	78.83	+5.87	+8.045	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	9.22	11.81	+2.59	+28.09	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	18.76	18.74	-.02	-.0011	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	5.27	6.20	+.93	+17.64	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	1.79	1.80	+.01	+.5586	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	6.25	7.50	+1.25	+20.00	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	23.29	32.04	+8.75	+37.57	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	15.95	20.49	+4.54	+28.46	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	25.00	31.10	+6.10	+24.40	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	11.73	15.10	+3.37	+28.73	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 392.5	Current 458.0	Change +65.5/+16.69%	Avg Stock +17.05%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

July 13-17: Dow, NASDAQ Soar--Solar Close Behind

Week reverses a three-week drop

It was a rebound week on Wall Street. The Dow saw five consecutive gaining days charging back 597 points to 8743.94, a juicy 7% up from last Friday's close. The NASDAQ rebounded, too, climbing nearly 131 points to finish at 1886.61, over a 7% gain as well. It's the eight consecutive gain for NASDAQ, the best run in over four years. The 20 Solar Stocks Index ascended 22.1 points to end the week at 392.5, nearly a 6% comeback.

Overall solar stocks rose 10.5% with only one of the 20 not gaining ground. Friday's trading cooled down for solar as 14 stocks dropped slightly from yesterday but the last five days stopped a three-week slide.

Analysts say the good Wall Steet week is largely due to strong earnings reports from Intel and IBM and some encouraging news on the economy. After about a three-week drubbing, solar stocks may have been perceived as bargains this week, thus the surge. The energy bill before the Senate will be more of a boon for Big Oil and King Cole, so the rise in solar stocks, to this blogger, should not be attributed to the energy bill in its current form.

Week of July 13-17, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	8146.52	8743.94	+597.42	+7.333%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	1756.03	1886.61	+130.58	+7.436	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.14	1.11	-.03	-2.703	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	4.73	4.94	+.21	+4.439	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	11.00	12.67	+1.67	+15.18	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	9.82	13.90	+4.08	+41.55	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	12.14	12.98	+.84	+6.92	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.1680	.1700	+.0020	+1.190	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	1.99	2.06	+.07	+3.517	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	143.10	144.55	+1.45	+1.013	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	4.77	5.44	+.77	+14.04	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	3.78	4.48	+.70	+18.52	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	72.83	72.96	+.13	+.1785	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	8.53	9.22	+.69	+8.089	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	16.61	18.76	+2.15	+12.94	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	4.64	5.27	+.63	+13.57	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	1.70	1.79	+.09	-5.294	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	5.25	6.25	+1.00	+19.05	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	22.35	23.29	+.94	+4.205	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	14.35	15.95	+1.60	+11.15	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	21.27	25.00	+3.73	+17.53	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	10.24	11.73	+1.49	+14.55	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 370.4	Current 392.5	Change +22.1/+5.97%	Avg Stock 10.51%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

Dow, NASDAQ, Solar Up, Up, Up

Best day for NASDAQ in nine months

After three dismal weeks of trading in almost every sector, indexes are seeing a healthy reversal so far this week. The Dow closed at 8616.21 today, 470 points above last Friday's close, a 5.76% gain. NASDAQ finished at 1862.9, 107 points above Friday, a 6.09% rise. And the 20 Solar Stocks Index to a 6.23% leap so far, gaining 23.09 points to finish today at 393.49.

It was the highest close for NASDAQ since Oct. 6 and helped in large part by Intel whose second quarter revenue and profits were much better than expected. Intel gained 1.22 finishing at 18.05 today, a 7.2% jump.

All 20SSI solar companies have gained this week but this could be because investors are taking advantage of low stock prices after the shellacking taken by solar over the previous three weeks. Nothing special has happened in the industry but companies from integrators, installers, and manufacturers are starting to write some serious business lately.

July 6-10: Solar Stocks Drop 11%

Dow also down fourth straight week...

The 20 Solar Stocks Index (20SSI) dropped 41 points this week, an 11% loss. The index has lost 90 points since June 5--a 24% loss in just four weeks. The trend follows the Dow and NASDAQ, their losses have not been as precipitous.

The energy and climate change bill now before the Senate is proving to be more of a windfall for oil and coal. Also, just this week nuclear got a potential boost with a White House compromise with the Senate that could allow building 100 more nuke plants by 2030. By caving in to such archaic energy technologies, the bill, should pass into law, should be renamed the Old Energy Resources and Global Heating Act of 2009. It's that pitiful. Who needs solar or wind when campaign contributions from Big Oil and King Coal need to be repaid? The nuclear thing came straight out of left field. (See: "The Energy Bill: Do It Right or Dump It" http://freesolaradvice.blogspot.com/2009/07/energy-bill-get-it-right-or-dump-it.html)

Crude oil also dropped below $60 a barrel which also--erroneously--hurts renewable energy stocks. When Black Gold is cheap, solar and wind get ignored.

Losses by solar companies played no favorites. Penny stocks like Akeena and Satcon dropped 10% and 6% respectively. Big boys SunPower and SunTech took hits of 17% and 29%. If it's any consolation, the 20SSI is still well above its March 6 close. But June losses ate up about half the gains made since March 9...

Week of July 6-10, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	8289.81	8146.52	-143.29	-1.758%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	1796.52	1756.03	-40.49	-2.306	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.25	1.14	-.11	-9.649	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	4.77	4.73	-.04	-.8456	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	11.13	11.00	-.13	-1.181	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	12.02	9.82	-2.20	-22.40	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	15.06	12.14	-2.92	-24.05	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.1651	.1680	+.0029	+1.756	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.39	1.99	-.40	-20.10	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	154.20	143.10	-11.10	-7.756	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.41	4,77	-.64	-13.41	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	4.37	3.78	-.59	-15.61	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	73.61	72.63	-.78	-1.071	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	10.87	8.53	-2.34	-27.43	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	17.55	16.61	-.94	-5.659	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	5.53	4.64	-.89	-19.18	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	1.80	1.70	-.10	-5.882	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	6.24	5.25	-.99	-18.85	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	26.23	22.35	-.58	-2.211	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	18.45	14.35	-4.10	-28.57	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	26.35	21.27	-5.08	-23.88	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	13.61	10.241	-3.37	-32.91	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 411.05	Current 370.4	Change -40.65/-11%	Avg Stock -14.70%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

Solar Tax Grant Forms Available Here

Those contemplating solar power for home or business and want to take the 30% tax credit as a grant can now apply. The grant is part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 passed in February. Solar, wind, geothermal, hydropower and (unfortunately) nuclear are eligible projects. The program is funded with $85 billion but this could go quickly if a few nuclear projects take the grant. The simple three-page grant application becomes available tomorrow from the Treasury Department but the grant application, grant program terms and grant guidance document--all PDFs--are available here. If interested, request the three documents by emailing: dbrands@cox.net.

Special thanks to my solar colleague in Phoenix, Dan Hoskin, for getting these docs to Solar Advice for Free.

The Energy Bill: Get It Right or Dump It

Commentary: Is clean energy a pipe dream?

The Waxman-Markey Bill, an energy bill intended to sharply cut greenhouse gas emissions through the use of renewable energy technologies has instead become an enabler for Big Oil, King Coal and the nuclear industry. President Obama is pushing passage of the bill (now in the Senate) to feather his political nest but the legislation, as it's shaping up, is actually a setback for solar, wind and geothermal.

Environmentalists are saying it would be better to scrap this weak-as-water legislation than have it enacted. Congressional members from the coal and oil producing states are placing regional interests over the national good. Not that this hasn't happened before but the consequences are potentially greater than ever before.

Waxman-Markey has been diluted drastically since the climate change draft was introduced in the House of Representatives in March. The compromise bill passed late last month requires the coal and electric utility industries to reduce U.S. emissions by 17 percent in 2020, down from the 20 percent reduction advised in the initial draft. The revised bill also cuts state requirements to get their energy from renewable sources from 25% to 15% by 2025.

Here's a bigger pain: Barack Obama's campaign platform included selling 100% of so-called pollution permits that would raise nearly $650 billion to fight global heating over the next ten years but the House version gives all but 15% of those permits away free of charge. It figuratively castrates the whole intent of cap-and-trade. Such kowtowing to industry shows legislators are much more interested in shielding their constituent industries and are incapable of passing reforms scientists say are necessary to mitigate America's huge contribution to global heating.

And it gets even worse

Just yesterday, President Obama compromised with Senate Republicans and Rust Belt Democrats to plan and construct 100 new nuclear power plants by 2030. Wasn't it just awhile back we heard plans to decommission all 104 existing nuke plants by 2050 in favor of renewable sources?

Nuclear power is cleaner for the air than fossil fuels for making electricity but it is not green power. Uranium is not a renewable resource; it has to be mined, nurtured and watched like an infant while it's used and then stored safely somewhere for millennia. Green power comes from inexhaustible sources like the sun, the wind (currents caused by the sun), geothermal and ancillary sources like biomass and wave power.

Nuclear energy in theory is cheap power but in reality it is not. That's because of the exorbitant cost to build plants, monitor and maintain them, insure them and ultimately decommission them. Plus that pesky problem of proper, long-term waste disposal. Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and the radioactive contamination of a stream from a nuke plant in France last year, are all warnings being ignored. By adding 100 new nuke plants, we double our risk of a nuclear catastrophe. No matter how many say the nuclear record is statistically great, humans are not infallible no matter how smart and well-trained they may be. Furthermore, nuclear plants are ideal targets for terrorist cells. With patience and planning (like that leading to 9/11) an extremist attack on an atomic power site gives terrorists the nuclear threat without even investing a dime in the technology themselves. And did I mention making smart bombs from nuclear waste?

No legislation is better than being saddled with bad legislation. Passing a half-baked bill that appears long on good intentions and short on meaningful action is a waste of time and money. Time is already wasting on fighting global heating while the money still flows to those who already have it.

June 29-July 3: Another Downer Week

More bears are attacking

The Dow lost 148.58 points over the week, nearly 2% off. The NASDAQ drop 42 points and the 20 Solar Stocks Index (20SSI) lost about 9 points both finishing 2.3% off last week.

MarketWatch and CNBC point to several reasons why the market over the past three weeks is looking bearish. The price of crude is doggedly rising; data from the Fed points to a weak, if not weakening, economy; brokerages and banks hint at more depressing news; some strong companies in tech are giving cautious projections; and the Federal Reserve has left interest rates the same.

Solar companies of all sizes are chomping on the bit because of stingy financing of projects they've lined up. The already watered-down House version of the new energy act could get even weaker in the Senate version. The existing version requires that 15% of all energy produced by 2020 must come from renewable sources. That's a measly 1.5% a year; not much of a goal. Fortunately, many states have legislated for higher renewable energy standards that dwarf the Fed's approach. California has mandated 20% from renewables by the end of 2010 and 30% by 2020, although attainment of either is questionable.

Prospects for solar and wind looked a lot more promising in November than what's happening right now. It's looking like Big Oil and Big Coal, with their copious amounts of cash and armies of lobbyists, have poisoned America's representative democracy irreversibly. As profit continues to trump common sense and scientific data, our once-great nation is now pimping to the highest bidders. Happy 4th!

Week of June 29-July 3, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	8438.39	8289.81	-148.58	-1.792%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	1838.22	1796.52	-41.7	-2.321	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.29	1.25	-.04	-3.200	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	4.72	4.77	+.05	+1.059	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	10.91	11.13	+.22	+2.016	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	12.41	12.02	-.39	-3.244	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	14.78	15.06	+.28	+1.894	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.1850	.1651	+.0199	-12.05	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.35	2.39	+.04	+1.702	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	160.72	154.20	-6.52	-4.228	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.73	5.41	-.32	-5.914	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	4.85	4.37	-.48	-10.98	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	77.25	73.61	-3.64	-4.945	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	11.30	10.87	-.43	-3.956	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	17.94	17.55	-.39	-2.222	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	5.86	5.53	-.33	-5.967	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	2.16	1.80	-.36	-20.00	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	6.66	6.24	-.42	-6.730	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	26.81	26.23	-.58	-2.211	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	18.01	18.45	+.44	+2.443	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	23.53	26.35	+.58	+2.527	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	13.17	13.61	-.44	-3.340	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 420.64	Current 411.005	Change -9.64/-2.34%	Avg Stock -3.06%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.