Aug 24-28: Dow, NASDAQ Inch Up; 8 Solar Stocks Gain

Usual late-summer vacations mean trading lull

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ gained about .4% in light trading for the week. The 20SSI was down just 1.27 to finish at 384.62 a .33% decline from the previous week.

Economists are predicting 250,000 jobs lost in August, slightly up from July's 247,000. The Labor Department released its report late Friday which, along with data from payroll processor ADP, could strongly influence trading on Monday.

Eight of the 20 solar stocks in this index finished up: Entech, First Solar, Kyocera, LDK Solar, Renesola, Satcon, Suntech and Trina Solar. None of the gains exceeded 6%--a far cry from the boom period from March through June. Solar inventories are still climbing as the economy remains weak and, although credit is loosening, it's not loose enough to allow many planned projects to get underway. On the other hand, those with cash or financing in place, solar panels, inverters, trackers and racking have never been cheaper. For one who experiencing the shortage of both silicon cells and panels in 2004-05, it is truly amazing the deals that can be made on even better equipment today. Coming electricity rate hikes--steep and soon--could force the issue for power-needy consumers small and large.

20 Solar Stocks Index Week of August 24-28, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	9505.96	9544.2	+38.24	+.4022%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	2020.90	2028.77	+7.87	+.3894	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.17	1.09	-.08	-7.339	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	5.05	5.03	-.02	-.3976	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	13.74	13.27	-.47	-3.541	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	15.98	15.19	-.79	-5.200	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	12.36	11.92	-.44	-3.691	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.1750	18.00	+.005	+2.857	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	1.89	1.65	-.24	-14.54	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	121.54	124.21	+2.67	+2.196	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.38	5.27	-.11	-2.087	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	3.79	3.62	-.17	-4.696	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	79.85	81.44	+1.59	+1.991	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	8.94	9.24	+.30	+3.355	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	17.00	16.55	-.45	-2.719	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	5.53	5.73	+.20	+3.616	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	1.96	2.07	+.11	+3.157	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	5.51	5.30	-.21	-3.962	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	26.25	26.14	-.11	-.4208	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	15.30	18.00	-.25	+1.661	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	25.93	27.70	+1.77	+6.826	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	11.07	11.02	-.05	-.4537	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 385.89	Current 384.62	Change -1.27/-.33%	Avg Stock -.6797%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

Aug 17-21: Dow, NASDAQ; Solar Slides Some More

Crude oil is credited with upsurge

The DJIA gained nearly 185 points for the week and NASDAQ went up 62. Wall Street suggests the surge is related to increased crude oil prices. The 20 Solar Stocks Index took another slide to finish at 385.89, an 11% drop from last Friday.

On July 11, 2008 crude oil was at $146.65 a barrel and the Dow took a 129 point hit that day. The high oil prices back then were bad for the stock market because expensive oil absorbs capital the could have gone to other areas. Today, as crude sits around $74 a barrel, up from $40/barrel not long ago, the increase to many suggests the economy is recovering. It seems to be the inverse from last year.

Either way, the market still seems to be inextricably tied to the cost of crude. Crude oil, the dirty stuff, that powers most forms of transportation.

Solar power is gaining popularity nationwide but even though panel prices are a record lows, the weak economy is keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines. Low panel prices come as a result of oversupply of both panels and actual silicon wafers. Thin-film companies like UniSolar, First Solar and (indirectly) Applied Materials see their sales faltering likely because crystalline panel pricing has dropped to the point of being the same or cheaper than their PV offerings. Also, high-concentration PV makers, who use lenses to magnify the output of smaller silicon chips, have less of a play in the solar market because they counted on silicon prices staying high. With today's glut of crystalline panels and wafers, the HCPV approach is neutralized.

Spiking electricity costs are still the biggest motivation to go solar and wind. As the economy bounces back and the need for power surges, solar will surge along with it. Besides, many states either have or are about to institute clean energy mandates that public utilities will have to meet. For the time being solar will have to bear these challenging times just like virtually all other sectors.

20 Solar Stocks Index Week of August 17-23, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	9321.40	9505.96	+184.56	=1.980%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	1985.52	2020.90	+62.38	+3.185	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.21	1.17	-.04	-3.420	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	4.91	5.05	+.14	+2.851	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	13.55	13.74	+.19	+1.402	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	16.54	15.98	-.56	-11.24	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	13.35	12.36	-.99	-8.009	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.2010	.1750	-.026	-14.85	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.00	1.89	-.11	-5.820	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	141.78	121.54	-20.24	-16.65	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.50	5.38	-.12	-2.230	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	4.17	3.79	-.38	-10.02	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	81.45	79.85	11.60	-2.003	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	9.22	8.94	-.28	-3.132	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	16.82	17.00	+.18	+1.070	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	5.38	5.53	+.18	+2.788	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	1.90	1.96	+.06	+3.157	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	6.70	5.51	-1.19	-21.59	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	27.65	26.25	-1.40	-5.33	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	17.64	15.30	-2.34	-15.29	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	28.31	25.93	-2.38	-9.178	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	12.43	11.07	-1.36	-12.28	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 410.71	Current 385.89	Change -43.19/-11%	Avg Stock -6.21%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Consensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

Aug 10-14: Dow Off; NASDAQ, Solar Also Tumble

Consumer confidence dipping

The DJIA's four-week run of gains ended this week down 49 points from last Friday. NASDAQ was also down--about 15 points this week but drops for both major indexes amounted to less than 1%. All but two in the 20SSI went down for a generally sour week throughout Wall Street. Fortunately, it's August and trading is relatively light.

MarketWatch reports that consumer confidence has fallen based on the Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment which fell to 63.2 this month from 66 in July. By contrast, analyst's consensus predicted a rise to 68.5.

Consumers companies are feeling the pinch. Nordstrom lead the sector's declines by falling 1.89 to 27.87 after its Q209 profit fell 27%. Consumer sentiment also hurt some commodities including oil entities. Certain banks, like Bank of America, helped to offset overall declines with some modest gains.

As for solar stocks, Chris Morrison, energy writer at bnet.com, reported yesterday that large solar panel inventories are taking a toll on the solar industry. Oversupply hit LDK Solar hard last quarter by taking a $217 million loss for its unsold solar wafer stock. Of that amount, $175.8 million was in inventory write-downs, meaning LDK was forced to reduce on-paper value of unsold wafers to reflect current market pricing. JA Solar, also a solar cell maker, said its inventories rose 18%, a common condition of silicon wafer and solar panel manufacturers. Still, most solar companies, Morrison reports, seem to believe the industry will be over the hump in 2010 or early 2011.

iSupply, an electronics research firm, predicted oversupply lasting into 2012; that half of all panels now being made are going into inventory. Such a glut of panels has an adverse effect on high-concentration photovoltaics makers (HCPV) as their modules are based on cutting cost-per-watt pricing by using Fresnel lenses (mostly) to maximize output of much less silicon per module. With high-grade silicon wafers in abundance and prices falling, HCPV technology becomes less important.

20 Solar Stocks Index Week of August 10-14, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	9370.07	9321.40	-48.67	-.5221%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	2000.25	1985.52	-14.73	-.7418	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.26	1.21	-.05	-4.132	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	5.63	4.91	-.72	-14.66	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	13.52	13.55	+.02	+.2219	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	18.40	16.54	-1.86	-11.24	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	13.58	13.35	-.23	-1.722	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.2230	.2010	-.022	-10.95	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.06	2.00	-.06	-3.000	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	146.47	141.78	-4.69	-3.079	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	6.50	5.50	-1.00	-18.18	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	5.20	4.17	-1.03	-24.70	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	80.72	81.45	+.73	+.0090	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	11.64	9.22	-2.42	-26.24	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	17.46	16.82	-.64	-3.804	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	5.67	5.38	-.29	-5.390	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	2.02	1.90	-.12	-6.315	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	7.84	6.70	-1.14	-17.01	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	30.69	27.65	-3.04	-10.99	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	18.22	17.64	-.58	-3.288	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	28.58	28.31	-.27	-.9537	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	13.40	12.43	-.97	-7.803	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 429.08	Current 410.71	Change -18.38/-4.4%	Avg Stock -8.66%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Consensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

Dow, NASDAQ Chug On; Solar Index Down by Jigger

Canadian Solar up over 26%

Although it was up 181 points earlier today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 114 points today to end the week at 9370.07, the highest in nine months. NASDAQ also finished the week well at 2000.25, about 22 points up from last Friday. The 20 Solar Stock Index closed down 3.67 points from last week to 429.08.

Major gainers on the Dow and NASDAQ range from D.R. Horton, a home-building firm, Hansen Naturals, the soda company and AES, an electrical power giant, so success seems diverse, at least for the week. Gains by two of Dow's former members drip with irony. Recent upturns by AIG and Citigroup (both NYSE and both TARP money) shows there may be a smidgen of hope for American taxpayers who own 75% alone of AIG from bail-out cash infused since last fall.

Canadian Solar International was the week's biggest gainer in the 20SSI by far--up 3.86 for the week, over a 26% climb from last Friday. Just yesterday CSI released second quarter results showing a net revenues of $114.2M, a 131% increase from Q109. Today CSI announced it has signed a "broad strategic" agreement with Guodian Power Development Co., Ltd., one of China's largest utilities.

First Solar closed down for the week by nearly 8 points, a 5.4% loss despite Q209 revenues up around 20% from first quarter's results. First Solar's thin-film modules have been wildly popular because of their rock-bottom low pricing. Yet standard silicon panel prices are at all-time lows now, too, and their higher efficiencies require significantly less space to install. Could the First Solar bubble be bursting?

20 Solar Stocks Index Week of August 3-7, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	9171.62	9370.07	+198.45	+2.163%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	1978.5	2000.25	+21.75	+1.953	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.3101	1.26	-.0501	-3.976	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	5.74	5.63	-.11	-1.953	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	13.80	13.52	-.28	-2.071	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	14.54	18.40	+3.86	+26.54	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	14.24	13.58	-.66	-4.860	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.2300	.2230	-.007	-.3139	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.10	2.06	-.04	-1.941	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	154.39	146.47	-7.92	-5.407	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	6.20	6.50	+.30	+4.838	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	4.81	5.20	+.39	+8.108	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	80.17	80.72	+.55	+.6860	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	10.94	11.64	+.70	+6.398	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	17.62	17.46	-.16	-.9163	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	5.45	5.67	+.22	+4.036	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	1.89	2.02	+.13	+6.878	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	7.20	7.84	-.64	+8.888	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	32.20	30.69	-1.51	-4.920	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	18.39	18.22	-.17	-.9330	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	28.26	28.58	+.32	+1.132	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	13.27	13.40	+.13	+.9796	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 432.75	Current 429.08	Change -3.67/-.85%	Avg Stock +.2.06%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Consensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

Why Wait for Breakthrough Solar Technologies?

"If in 1977 you read a science article reporting that hybrid gas-electric vehicles were not too distant in the future, would you have waited over 20 years to buy a Toyota Prius?"

Homeowners and businesses are saving with solar now

Recently, Energy Secretary Steven Chu said a breakthrough is needed in photovoltaics in order to significantly reduce greenhouse gases (GHG). Secretary Chu, who likes nuclear power, supports more research into making solar cells with cheaper materials reducing installed cost-per-watt immensely thus generating more PV installations resulting in larger GHG reductions.

Researchers have sought to reduce solar panel wholesale pricing below $1 per watt for years. Well, in this year's first quarter First Solar did just that. Furthermore, industry-wide the cost for solar modules are at all-time lows. Besides dogfighting for market share in a weak economy, panel makers have many more manufacturers of high-grade silicon wafers from which to buy than just four years ago. For the first time ever, there are plenty of panels to go around that are much cheaper in cost with appreciable efficiencies.

Today's panels, inverters, racking and trackers are answering the questions of five, ten and twenty years ago. We are seeing the fruits of solar R&D over the past two decades and many solar adopters are seeing the benefits...today. Back then the questions were tougher because no one really knew if a viable market would exist for solar to justify making major R&D investments. Yet visionaries and outliers could see energy costs rising precipitously. In this light, they took their chances.

Innovations such as net metering laws gave solar a boost. This breakthrough--not technological but governmental--eliminated the need for storage batteries, their costly replacement and their recycling issues. In effect, a grid-tied PV system uses the utility as its "back-up battery." Other breakthroughs like feed-in tariffs, rebates and tax credits made PV system pricing more palatable worldwide. The holy grail for solar pricing, according to the book Exponential Solar is .50/watt installed. That puts solar on even keel with fossil fuel and nuclear produced electricity. As demand for solar is going up and pricing going down, that goal could be attainable in the next decade.

Advancements in solar PV are going to happen; it's simply necessary for the players in any growing industry to constantly improve their products to stay competitive. But the existing solar technology can reduce electricity costs while reducing GHG emissions NOW. And even if there is a major breakthrough in PV, existing solar systems will have already saved their owners big on electricity costs and will continue to do so for years to come. Finally, lest we forget, the "new and improved" and the "latest and greatest" always come with a hefty price tag.