This Week: Dow Down, NASDAQ Up; Solar Dips About 2%

Banking sector giving investors heebee-jeebies

The six-week climb for the Dow ended today when the index fell 55 points from last week. However, NASDAQ kept its streak going with a 21.22 net increase for the week. The select 20 Solar Stock Index fell for the second straight week down about 2%.

The mixed performance is attributed to the shakiness of the American banking system. Just today four banks were shuttered by federal and state regulators in Georgia, Michigan, California and Idaho as the credit crisis crunches the economy.

Only six of the 20SSI finished ahead for the week: Amtel Systems, ECD (UniSolar), First Solar, Kyocera, Satcon and Trina Solar. Still, solar stocks are up over 50% since the mini-bull market began March 9. The PV industry will take hits but the future looks brighter for it and wind energy as more state and federal renewable energy standards take effect or get more stringent. For the first time ever, there is plenty of PV panels and related equipment onhand and this means good news for homeowners and commercial interests by driving down cost. Of course, a better credit atmosphere would help.

Week of April 20-24, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09
Dow Jones DJIA	8131.33	8076.29	-55.04	-.0068%	8952.89
NASDAQ	1673.07	1694.29	+21.22	+1.268	1628.03
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.24	1.12	-.12	-10.714	2.28
Amtel Systems ASYS	3.2901	3.67	+.3799	+11.54	4.00
Applied Materials AMAT	11.45	11.70	-.22	-.856	10.67
Canadian Solar CSIQ	6.88	6.46	-.42	-6.114	7.00
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	15.82	16.66	+.84	+5.309	29.33
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.26	.2598	-.0002	.0007	.28
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.21	2.16	-.05	-2.314	3.60
First Solar FSLR	143.80	147.46	+3.66	+2.545	157.80
GT Solar Int. SOLR	6.97	6.58	-.39	-5.927	4.00
JA Solar JASO	3.41	3.20	-.21	-6.562	5.09
Kyocera KYO	69.55	75.68	+6.13	+8.813	71.87
LDK Solar LDK	8.39	7.37	-1.02	-13.839	14.84
MEMC Elect. WFR	15.59	15.44	-.15	-.0097	15.76
Renesola SOL	3.32	3.08	-.24	-7.792	5.15
Satcon SATC	1.79	1.96	+.19	+9.497	1.60
SolarFun SOLF	4.46	4.07	-.39	-9.582	6.12
SunPower SPWRA	26.45	25.41	-1.04	-4.092	45.13
SunTech STP	14.75	13.16	-1.59	-12.082	13.55
Trina Solar TSL	12.38	13.20	+.82	+6.623	10.09
Yingli YGE	7.01	6.46	-.55	-8.513	7.25
Percent change all 20 stocks this week:				-2.123%

Dow, NASDAQ Up; Solar Down a Sliver

Six week streak longest since May 2007

For the sixth consecutive week the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ have gone up, the longest streak in nearly two years. The 20 solar stocks in this index (20SSI) were a mixed bag; the average down less than a percentage point.

The biggest gainer was Entech Solar but that could be the fluke of the week. MEMC, a silicon wafer maker, took the biggest slide on news the company's first quarter earnings were about 5% under projections. Overall, eleven stocks were down this week putting the 20-stock averge at -.0641%.

Since Monday, March 9, the day the current bull market began, through end of trading yesterday, April 17, the Dow has risen 22% and NASDAQ 24.3%. Despite this week's weak performance the 20SSI has risen 58.6% in the past six weeks. So far as this blogger knows, no one else is reporting how the solar industry is bouncing back big in the early recovery stage.

Week of April 13-17

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09
Dow Jones DJIA	8083.38	8131.33	+47.95	+5.931%	8952.89
NASDAQ	1652.54	1673.07	+20.53	+1.242	1628.03
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.24	1.24	NC	NC	2.28
Amtel Systems ASYS	3.2901		-.0201	-.6146	4.00
Applied Materials AMAT	11.81	11.45	+.47	+4.104	10.67
Canadian Solar CSIQ	6.88	6.46	-.42	-6.114	7.00
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	15.02	15.82	_.80	+5.326	29.33
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.2050	.26	+.055	+26.829	.28
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.24	2.21	-.03	-3.300	3.60
First Solar FSLR	142.05	143.80	+1.75	+1.231	157.80
GT Solar Int. SOLR	6.72	6.97	-.23	-3.300	4.00
JA Solar JASO	3.43	3.41	-.02	-.586	5.09
Kyocera KYO	68.88	69.55	+.67	+.972	71.87
LDK Solar LDK	8.08	8.39	+.31	+13.836	14.84
MEMC Elect. WFR	18.95	15.59	-3.36	-17.741	15.76
Renesola SOL	3.82	3.32	-.50	-13.090	5.15
Satcon SATC	1.92	1.79	-.13	-7.262	1.60
SolarFun SOLF	4.56	4.46	-.10	-2.203	6.12
SunPower SPWRA	26.04	26.45	+.41	+1.574	45.13
SunTech STP	14.40	14.75	+.35	+2.430	13.55
Trina Solar TSL	12.79	12.38	-.41	-3.216	10.09
Yingli YGE	7.31	7.01	-.30	-4.279	7.25
Percent change all 20 stocks this week:				-.0641%

April 6-10: Solar Stocks Beat Dow, NASDAQ Again

Winners 15 Losers 5

For the fifth straight week the DJIA, NASDAQ and the select 20 Solar Stocks Index went up. The Dow observed Good Friday but closed yesterday at 8083.38, up 65.79 points for the week or +.8205%. The NASDAQ was up 30.67 to 1652.54 or 1.891%. The 20SSI gained surpassed last week's gains going up 2.455% net average. Solar winners outnumbered losers 15 to 5. Trina Solar was the biggest gainer at nearly 15% up.

The week started shakily with major drops on Monday but recovered on Thursday on reports that Wells Fargo bank expects profits of $3 billion for the first quarter thanks to the acquisition in January of Wachovia bank and an increase in mortgage applications.

Also, March sales show retailers may have weathered the worst of the recession. Other recent positive indicators, including a rise in U.S. factory orders for the first time in seven months, also may have proven to lift sentiment despite still record-high job losses and continuing unemployment claims remaining at a record high.

Week of April 6-10, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09
Dow Jones DJIA	8017.59	8083.38	+65.79	+.8205%	8952.89
NASDAQ	1621.87	1652.54	+30.67	+1.891	1628.03
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.19	1.24	+.05	+4.201	2.28
Amtel Systems ASYS	3.27	3.2901	-.0201	-.6146	4.00
Applied Materials AMAT	11.81	11.45	-.36	-3.059	10.67
Canadian Solar CSIQ	6.73	6.88	+.15	+2.228	7.00
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	15.77	15.02	-.75	-4.766	29.33
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.245	.2050	-.04	-16.33	.28
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.20	2.24	+.04	+1.818	3.60
First Solar FSLR	134.38	142.05	+7.67	+5.707	157.80
GT Solar Int. SOLR	6.72	6.97	+.25	+3.720	4.00
JA Solar JASO	3.47	3.43	-.04	-1.1637	5.09
Kyocera KYO	68.19	68.88	+.59	+1.011	71.87
LDK Solar LDK	6.99	8.08	+1.09	+15.59	14.84
MEMC Elect. WFR	18.69	18.95	+.26	+1.391	15.76
Renesola SOL	3.84	3.82	-.02	-.5214	5.15
Satcon SATC	1.88	1.92	+.04	+2.127	1.60
SolarFun SOLF	4.318	4.56	+.242	+5.604	6.12
SunPower SPWRA	24.67	26.04	+1.37	+5.555	45.13
SunTech STP	14.00	14.40	+.40	+2.857	13.55
Trina Solar TSL	11.15	12.79	+1.64	+14.70	10.09
Yingli YGE	6.78	7.31	+.53	+7.817	7.25
Percent change all 20 stocks this week:				+2.455%

On-Grid or Off-grid: Which way to go

Now that it's springtime more people are thinking of adding solar power for their homes and businesses. The federal solar investment tax credit along with more local and state incentives help with these decisions. Having sold residential and commercial systems since 2002, a portion of my customers have asked about going totally off-grid. During the contrived "energy crisis" here in California in 2000-01, many wanted to go off-grid to get back at the utilities who, as it turned out, were complicit in creating the shortage.

But now let us reason together.

Only in those remote areas where the regional electrical grid has not yet reached would I recommend solar (or wind) power. Solar panels are a reliable source for power but a battery bank is required for storing electricity. Batteries degrade a lot faster than panels and most people would not want to maintain a battery bank if they didn't need to but the technology is there, if necessary. Another issue disfavoring off-grid solar is that many incentives only cover grid-tied systems. (See "Solar Incentives by State" in Related Links)

Net metering is a cool thing for ratepayers using solar power. If for instance a family uses 700 kilowatt hours in a month and the rooftop PV system produced 500 kWh, the family is only charged for the net consumption from the utility, 200kWh. It's as simple as that. In places like California, the investor-owned utilities use tiered billing systems which increase the cost per kWh as the consumer uses more. In this case, solar covers the top 500 kWh leaving the remaining 200 in the cheapest (baseline) rate. So while the 500 kWh covers 71% of demand, it could defray 80% or more of the actual charges. Better yet, grid-tied systems qualify for all rebates, feed-in tariffs and tax credits without requiring a battery bank.

Back-Up Systems: If you live in an area where weather plays havoc with the power lines consider a back-up system for your solar installation. Some inverter makers like SMA America make inverters that work with the grid but also trickle charge battery(s) for temporary back-up power. These cost a little more but can be worth it. The question one should ask is "How often does the power go out for more than four hours in a year?". If it doesn't happen but maybe once a year, don't bother with back-up. It might get you bragging rights with your neighbors that you have some power when they don't but it likely will not justify the extra cost. Just keep your refrigerator and freezer closed until the utility is back up.

Since March 9: Dow Up 21%; Solar Up 56%

Dow's best 4-week spike since '33...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just finished its best four-week streak since 1933. The Dow opened Monday, March 9 at 6626.95 then marched on to a stellar climb to 8017.19 at the end of trading today--a gaudy gain of 1390.24 points or 21%. The tech-concentrated NASDAQ grew from 1293.85 to 1621.87 points, 25.35% up. However, the 20SSI have to take the prize having gained 56.10% net combined since March 9.

GT Solar was the biggest gainer in solar gaining $2.50 a share for the week, over a 40% gain. SunTech, SatCon and Canadian Solar also had a good week of trading. It's disturbing mainstream media is either oblivious or doesn't want pick up on solar's thrust in the market. Three stocks, MEMC, Satcon and Trina Solar, exceeded their January 5 starts. For comparison's sake it would be timely to analyze the rise of the stocks in this index against the rapid demise of Chrysler and GM. Oh how the mighty have fallen.

Investors seem to betting on an economic rebound and technology stocks despite grim employment reports. Some 663,000 jobs were lost in March nationwide for a total of 5.1 million since the recession began about 14 months ago. Reported unemployment jumped to 8.5% well exceeded the 8.1% projection.

Incentives for solar power installations and low panel prices plus the onset of spring is bolstering the PV industry. Just like housing, it's a great to time go solar if you have the cash or the credit. Signs of banks opening up are showing and this helps. Furthermore, one thing's for sure, utilities will raise rates if and when they can.

Week of March 30-April 3, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09
Dow Jones DJIA	7776.18	8017.59	+241.41	+3.10%	8952.89
NASDAQ	1545.20	1621.87	+76.77	+4.96	1628.03
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.11	1.19	+.08	+7.20	2.28
Amtel Systems ASYS	3.46	3.27	-.19	-5.50	4.00
Applied Materials AMAT	11.23	11.81	+.58	+5.16	10.67
Canadian Solar CSIQ	5.76	6.73	+.97	+16.84	7.00
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	13.23	15.77	+2.54	+19.191	29.33
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	+.32	.245	-.075	-23.44	.28
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.33	2.20	-.13	-5.58	3.60
First Solar FSLR	147.36	134.38	-12.98	-8.81	157.80
GT Solar Int. SOLR	4.22	6.72	+2.50	+40.76	4.00
JA Solar JASO	3.93	3.47	-.46	-11.71	5.09
Kyocera KYO	68.07	68.19	+.12	+.17	71.87
LDK Solar LDK	7.19	6.99	-.20	-2.79	14.84
MEMC Elect. WFR	18.38	18.69	+.31	+1.68	15.76
Renesola SOL	3.70	3.84	+.14	+3.78	5.15
Satcon SATC	1.63	1.88	+.25	+15.33	1.60
SolarFun SOLF	4.67	4.318	-.352	-7.54	6.12
SunPower SPWRA	25.30	24.67	-.63	-2.50	45.13
SunTech STP	11.65	14.00	+2.35	+20.17	13.55
Trina Solar TSL	12.33	11.15	-1.18	-9.58	10.09
Yingli YGE	6.15	6.78	+.63	+10.24	7.25
Percent change all 20 stocks this week:				+1.85%

Concentrating Solar Getting Hotter, Worth Watching

Higher efficiencies, lower cost per watt

It's a good time to be watching concentrating solar technologies. CPV is the natural next step to reducing installed cost per watt for mostly large-scale systems although some makers have residential possibilities.

The most common of the CPV technologies is the parabolic trough system which concentrate solar rays onto a receiver pipe located along the focal line of a trough shaped reflector. Nine such systems are successfully producing power in California's Mohave Desert achieving a daily solar-to-electricity conversion efficiency of 18%. Power towers are another method in which sun-tracking mirrors (heliostats) reflect sun rays to a receiver atop a tall tower. Both systems heat fluid which passes through a heat exchanger to boil water for a steam engine that generates electricity. A third system uses a parabolic dish to focus solar radiation on a receiver mounted at the focal point of the dish. Instead of producing steam, dish systems heat fluid for a Stirling heat engine which produces the electricity.

Three companies use silicon cells with variations of optics, mirrors and trackers to concentrate sunpower.

Solfocus of Mountain View, Ca combines high-efficiency solar cells with advanced optics providing high yields using just 1/1000 of the PV material used in standard PV cells. The Solfocus reflective optic system includes a primary mirror to capture sunlight and a secondary mirror and non-imaging optic to concentrate it at 500 suns onto high efficiency solar cells. The company contends 38%+ efficiency with their cells compared to the 13-19% standard range.
(www.solfocus.com)

Whitfield Solar of Reading, England says its CPV product competes with flat-plate PV in four ways: lower cost; lower weight; lower embodied energy; and requires lower-tech manufacturing processes. Using Fresnel lenses Whitfield uses just 2.5% of the silicon cells required of conventional panels. The Whitfield CPV unit includes built-in tracking which combines tilt-and-roll of the panel and troughs to find and follow the sun wherever it is installed. The unit can also withstand hail and wind and does not have to "park" flat in high winds. (www.whitfieldsolar.com)

Opel International of Shelton, Connecticut makes high and low concentration panels. The Mk-I High Concentration PV Panel uses a dual element refractive concentrator and triple-junction Boeing-Spectrolab solar cells to produce 36.7% efficiency with the same 25-year power output warranty of most flat-plate panels. The Mk-III Concentraing PV Panel is a low-cost panel designed for grid-tied systems in low to medium solar radiance. No cell efficiency is listed on the Mk-III's tech sheet. (www.opelinc.com)