Consumer confidence dipping
The DJIA's four-week run of gains ended this week down 49 points from last Friday. NASDAQ was also down--about 15 points this week but drops for both major indexes amounted to less than 1%. All but two in the 20SSI went down for a generally sour week throughout Wall Street. Fortunately, it's August and trading is relatively light.
MarketWatch reports that consumer confidence has fallen based on the Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment which fell to 63.2 this month from 66 in July. By contrast, analyst's consensus predicted a rise to 68.5.
Consumers companies are feeling the pinch. Nordstrom lead the sector's declines by falling 1.89 to 27.87 after its Q209 profit fell 27%. Consumer sentiment also hurt some commodities including oil entities. Certain banks, like Bank of America, helped to offset overall declines with some modest gains.
As for solar stocks, Chris Morrison, energy writer at bnet.com, reported yesterday that large solar panel inventories are taking a toll on the solar industry. Oversupply hit LDK Solar hard last quarter by taking a $217 million loss for its unsold solar wafer stock. Of that amount, $175.8 million was in inventory write-downs, meaning LDK was forced to reduce on-paper value of unsold wafers to reflect current market pricing. JA Solar, also a solar cell maker, said its inventories rose 18%, a common condition of silicon wafer and solar panel manufacturers. Still, most solar companies, Morrison reports, seem to believe the industry will be over the hump in 2010 or early 2011.
iSupply, an electronics research firm, predicted oversupply lasting into 2012; that half of all panels now being made are going into inventory. Such a glut of panels has an adverse effect on high-concentration photovoltaics makers (HCPV) as their modules are based on cutting cost-per-watt pricing by using Fresnel lenses (mostly) to maximize output of much less silicon per module. With high-grade silicon wafers in abundance and prices falling, HCPV technology becomes less important.
20 Solar Stocks Index Week of August 10-14, 2009
| Monday Open | Friday Close | Up/Down | % Change | Close 1/5/09* | Close 3/6/09** | |
| Dow Jones DJIA | 9370.07 | 9321.40 | -48.67 | -.5221% | 8952.89 | 6626.95 |
| NASDAQ | 2000.25 | 1985.52 | -14.73 | -.7418 | 1628.03 | 1293.85 |
| Akeena Solar AKNS | 1.26 | 1.21 | -.05 | -4.132 | 2.28 | .61 |
| Amtel Systems ASYS | 5.63 | 4.91 | -.72 | -14.66 | 4.00 | 2.73 |
| Applied Materials AMAT | 13.52 | 13.55 | +.02 | +.2219 | 10.67 | 8.70 |
| Canadian Solar CSIQ | 18.40 | 16.54 | -1.86 | -11.24 | 7.00 | 3.0601 |
| ECD (UniSolar) ENER | 13.58 | 13.35 | -.23 | -1.722 | 29.33 | 17.45 |
| Entech Solar ENSL.OB | .2230 | .2010 | -.022 | -10.95 | .28 | .23 |
| Evergreen Solar ESLR | 2.06 | 2.00 | -.06 | -3.000 | 3.60 | 1.03 |
| First Solar FSLR | 146.47 | 141.78 | -4.69 | -3.079 | 157.80 | 108.49 |
| GT Solar Int. SOLR | 6.50 | 5.50 | -1.00 | -18.18 | 4.00 | 4.02 |
| JA Solar JASO | 5.20 | 4.17 | -1.03 | -24.70 | 5.09 | 1.91 |
| Kyocera KYO | 80.72 | 81.45 | +.73 | +.0090 | 71.87 | 54.21 |
| LDK Solar LDK | 11.64 | 9.22 | -2.42 | -26.24 | 14.84 | 4.40 |
| MEMC Elect. WFR | 17.46 | 16.82 | -.64 | -3.804 | 15.76 | 13.68 |
| Renesola SOL | 5.67 | 5.38 | -.29 | -5.390 | 5.15 | 2.1201 |
| Satcon SATC | 2.02 | 1.90 | -.12 | -6.315 | 1.60 | 1.23 |
| SolarFun SOLF | 7.84 | 6.70 | -1.14 | -17.01 | 6.12 | 2.30 |
| SunPower SPWRA | 30.69 | 27.65 | -3.04 | -10.99 | 45.13 | 23.39 |
| SunTech STP | 18.22 | 17.64 | -.58 | -3.288 | 13.55 | 5.34 |
| Trina Solar TSL | 28.58 | 28.31 | -.27 | -.9537 | 10.09 | 7.23 |
| Yingli YGE | 13.40 | 12.43 | -.97 | -7.803 | 7.25 | 3.888 |
| 20SSI Weekly Cumulative: | Previous 429.08 | Current 410.71 | Change -18.38/-4.4% | Avg Stock -8.66% | 1/05/09* 415.41 | 3/06/09** 266.01 |
** NOTE: Consensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.
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