Nov 9-13: Dow Surges; NASDAQ, Solar Up, Too

Dow just misses Wednesday's 13-month high...

For the second consecutive week the Dow showed strong gains finishing at 10270.47 on Friday, nearly a 2.5% gain. Since Oct. 30 the index has gained a gaudy 558 points. The NASDAQ finished the week slightly stronger at 2167.88, over a 2.6% rise. The 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI) showed a modest gain of nearly five points, a 1.28% increase over last week.

MarketWatch reports Palm Inc. shares gained 8.3% during the regular trading session on the NASDAQ today and this accounts for about .9% of the index's gain. Palm's stock surge is an anticipation of Sunday's launch of the company's latest smartphone, the Pixi. Palm is working exclusively with Sprint Nextel Corp and the two launched the first webOS device, the Pre, last May. Analysts, says MarketWatch, are optimistic about Palm but suggests its webOS devices should be offered through other mobile carriers to be successful.

The Dow was aided by gains in Disney and Goodyear Tire shares.

Fifteen of the 20SSI stocks were up this week, nudging the index up for a second week. JA Solar, LDK Solar and Yingli showed appreciable gains of 10% or more. Even Applied Materials was up slightly despite announcing 1500 company-wide layoffs this week.

20 Solar Stocks Index Week of Nov 9-13, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	10023.42	10270.47	+247.05	+2.464%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	2112.44	2167.88	+55.44	+2.624	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	.93	.95	+.02	+2.150	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	5.10	5.80	+.70	+13.72	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	12.40	12.72	+.32	+2.580	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	16.78	18.45	+1.67	+9.995	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	11.49	10.94	-.55	-5.027	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.1400	.1200	-.02	-16.66	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	1.42	1.48	+.06	+4.225	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	117.93	118.30	+.37	+.3137	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.24	4.72	-.52	-11.02	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	3.71	4.12	+.41	+11.05	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	83.95	81.11	-2.84	-3.501	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	5.74	6.39	+.65	+11.13	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	12.66	13.07	+.41	+3.238	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	3.95	4.05	+.10	+2.531	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	2.00	1.92	-.08	-4.166	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	5.12	5.59	+.47	+.0918	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	26.60	26.42	-.18	-.6813	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	12.70	13.72	+1.02	+8.031	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	38.18	39.70	+1.52	+3.981	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	12.14	13.45	+1.31	+10.79	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 378.18	Current 383.02	Change +4.84/+1.28%	Avg Stock +2.14%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** The Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.
NOTE: All above stocks have market capitization of $100M+ except Akeena Solar, Amtel Systems and Entech Solar. This listing is strictly informational and implies neither endorsement or disapproval of any stock listed. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

Aug 17-21: Dow, NASDAQ; Solar Slides Some More

Crude oil is credited with upsurge

The DJIA gained nearly 185 points for the week and NASDAQ went up 62. Wall Street suggests the surge is related to increased crude oil prices. The 20 Solar Stocks Index took another slide to finish at 385.89, an 11% drop from last Friday.

On July 11, 2008 crude oil was at $146.65 a barrel and the Dow took a 129 point hit that day. The high oil prices back then were bad for the stock market because expensive oil absorbs capital the could have gone to other areas. Today, as crude sits around $74 a barrel, up from $40/barrel not long ago, the increase to many suggests the economy is recovering. It seems to be the inverse from last year.

Either way, the market still seems to be inextricably tied to the cost of crude. Crude oil, the dirty stuff, that powers most forms of transportation.

Solar power is gaining popularity nationwide but even though panel prices are a record lows, the weak economy is keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines. Low panel prices come as a result of oversupply of both panels and actual silicon wafers. Thin-film companies like UniSolar, First Solar and (indirectly) Applied Materials see their sales faltering likely because crystalline panel pricing has dropped to the point of being the same or cheaper than their PV offerings. Also, high-concentration PV makers, who use lenses to magnify the output of smaller silicon chips, have less of a play in the solar market because they counted on silicon prices staying high. With today's glut of crystalline panels and wafers, the HCPV approach is neutralized.

Spiking electricity costs are still the biggest motivation to go solar and wind. As the economy bounces back and the need for power surges, solar will surge along with it. Besides, many states either have or are about to institute clean energy mandates that public utilities will have to meet. For the time being solar will have to bear these challenging times just like virtually all other sectors.

20 Solar Stocks Index Week of August 17-23, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	9321.40	9505.96	+184.56	=1.980%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	1985.52	2020.90	+62.38	+3.185	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.21	1.17	-.04	-3.420	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	4.91	5.05	+.14	+2.851	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	13.55	13.74	+.19	+1.402	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	16.54	15.98	-.56	-11.24	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	13.35	12.36	-.99	-8.009	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.2010	.1750	-.026	-14.85	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.00	1.89	-.11	-5.820	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	141.78	121.54	-20.24	-16.65	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.50	5.38	-.12	-2.230	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	4.17	3.79	-.38	-10.02	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	81.45	79.85	11.60	-2.003	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	9.22	8.94	-.28	-3.132	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	16.82	17.00	+.18	+1.070	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	5.38	5.53	+.18	+2.788	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	1.90	1.96	+.06	+3.157	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	6.70	5.51	-1.19	-21.59	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	27.65	26.25	-1.40	-5.33	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	17.64	15.30	-2.34	-15.29	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	28.31	25.93	-2.38	-9.178	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	12.43	11.07	-1.36	-12.28	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 410.71	Current 385.89	Change -43.19/-11%	Avg Stock -6.21%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Consensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

March 9-13: Solar Stocks Top Dow, NASDAQ

Rare four-day upswing...

For the fourth consecutive day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained and the NASDAQ followed suit. At day's end, the Dow finished at 7223.98, an even 9% up from Monday's 6626.95 open; the NASDAQ gained 137.65 points, 10.63% up for the week.

This embryonic surge that began on Tuesday with a 389-point gain is welcome, to say the least, but does it mean that Monday, March 9 marked the pivotal end to one of the worst bear markets in American history is anyone's guess. As for solar stocks however, I give a qualified "Yes."

All but three of the key 20 Solar Stocks Index (20SSI) finished not only higher this week but a glossy 12.57% average gain. Big winners were Evergreen Solar, Amtel Systems, SunTech, Canadian Solar and Applied Materials. Losers showed modest drops except for Entech Solar which appears to be staying afloat only by laying off personnel.

Granted, if this is a real turnaround it's much too early to tell. However, with recent DOE reports that available coal supplies are much less than forecast and CO2 levels accelerating faster than ever, the road to solar and wind is the de facto route for clean, renewable energy production. Solar stock investments could be the new GM, Standard Oil and Microsoft stocks of the 21st century.

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The Jon Stewart-Jim Cramer face-off on Thursday's The Daily Show is worth the watch. Stewart openly criticized Cramer's apparent disingenuousness as a financial commentator on CNBC leading up to the Wall Street collapse. The crux of the discussion according to Stewart is whether Cramer should act as an advocate for any particular Wall Street stocks or for the average laymen watching his "Mad Money" program. The upshot of Cramer's guest appearance is that he committed to Stewart to doing a better job of reporting financial news as it is rather than how he perceives it could or should be. Here's the link: http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=220536&title=jim-cramer-pt.-1

Week of March 9-13, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09
Dow Jones DJIA	6626.95	7223.98	+597.03	+9.00%	8952.89
NASDAQ	1293.85	1431.50	+137.65	+10.63	1628.03
Akeena Solar AKNS	.61	.6702	+.0602	+9.86	2.28
Amtel Systems ASYS	2.63	3.30	+.67	+25.47	4.00
Applied Materials AMAT	8.70	10.49	+1.79	+20.57	10.67
Canadian Solar CSIQ	3.0601	3.72	+.6599	+21.56	7.00
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	17.45	19.12	+1.67	+9.57	29.33
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.23	.1950	-.0350	.-15.22	.28
Evergreen Solar ESLR	1.03	1.42	+.39	+37.86	3.60
First Solar FSLR	108.49	129.55	+21.06	+19.41	157.80
GT Solar Int. SOLR	4.02	3.89	-.13	-3.24	4.00
JA Solar JASO	1.91	2.30	+.39	+20.41	5.09
Kyocera KYO	54.21	64.80	+10.59	+19.53	71.87
LDK Solar LDK	4.40	4.55	+.15	+3.40	14.84
MEMC Elect. WFR	13.68	15.43	+1.75	+12.79	15.76
Renesola SOL	2.1201	2.26	+.1399	+6.60	5.15
Satcon SATC	1.23	1.21	-.02	-1.63	1.60
SolarFun SOLF	2.30	2.80	+.50	+21.74	6.12
SunPower SPWRA	23.39	24.38	+.99	+4.23	45.13
SunTech STP	5.34	6.88	+1.54	+28.83	13.55
Trina Solar TSL	7.23	7.39	+.16	+2.21	10.09
Yingli YGE	3.88	4.18	+.29	+7.45	7.25
Percent change all 20 stocks this week:				+12.57%

Solar Stock Update: Close to Dow

Stimulus ambivalence...

The Dow dropped 430.46 points since the end of trading Monday, 5.2% down. The techy NASDAQ was less drab with a 62.2 point drop; 3.6% off since Monday. All but four solar stocks dropped this week averaging 5.41% down for all twenty in this index.

It seems the country is ambivalent about the economic stimulus as it's been hammered, chewed and emasculated by the Republicans who appear as though they won last November. Obama's bipartisan reach has been a failure but not from lack of effort. The Dems finally must realize the GOP sees bipartisanship as compromise and compromise implies weakness, a perception they used ruthlessly when they actually did control Congress awhile back. If Repubs feel they were left out of the stimulus planning--as they questionably claim--their tactics could totally backfire. The Dems might re-realize it was they who won big last November and rightfully assert themselves. But then, probably not.

Week of: February 9-13, 2009

	Monday	Friday	Up/Down	% Change
Dow Jones DJIA	8280.87	7850.41	-430.46	-5.20
NASDAQ	1591.56	1534.36	-62.20	-3.60
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.82	1.81	-.01	-.55
Amtel Systems ASYS	4.199	3.38	-.819	-20.51
Applied Materials AMAT	10.20	9.51	-.69	-6.77
Canadian Solar CSIQ	5.58	5.00	-.58	-10.40
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	28.16	28.95	+.79	+2.80
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.33	.35	+.02	+6.06
Evergreen Solar ESLR	1.77	1.66	-.11	-6.22
First Solar FSLR	148.94	144.45	-4.49	-3.02
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.50	5.13	-.37	-6.73
JA Solar JASO	2.99	2.66	-.33	-11.04
Kyocera KYO	68.40	64.00	-4.40	-6.44
LDK Solar LDK	11.15	10.65	-.50	-4.49
MEMC Elect. WFR	15.65	16.11	+.46	+2.93
Renesola SOL	4.00	3.58	-.42	-10.50
Satcon SATC	1.32	1.28	-.04	-3.04
SolarFun SOLF	5.07	4.53	-.54	-10.66
SunPower SPWRA	35.94	35.00	-.94	-2.62
SunTech STP	10.14	9.46	-.68	-6.71
Trina Solar TSL	8.35	8.54	+.19	+2.27
Yingli YGE	5.98	5.76	-.22	-3.68
Percent change all 20 stocks this week:				-5.41%

Solar Stocks Update: Jan. 26-30, 2009

Down month finishes upbeat, sort of

Okay, it was a dismal month for the Dow, NASDAQ and solar stocks overall. This post I added an additional stat showing percentage loss or gain since Jan. 5 when this stock index began. Only two solar stocks were up for the month, Amtel Systems and Entech Solar (formerly WorldWater & Solar Technologies). Either these companies have something good going or they just got lucky. Average solar stock loss for all twenty was over 18% but this week finished on a high note as gainers topped losers 14 to 6 with the average stock price up for the week about 3%.

Reasons for the down market involve the same suspects: Weak economy exacerbated by growing unemployment; banks still stingy about lending (our money!); and an anemic economy worldwide that can't purchase our exports (such as they are). As for solar, wintertime simply is not a good solar sales period. What's more, the lending problem has stymied several large solar projects but power purchase agreements are beginning to jump-start others which is a reason why the month has finished up. Furthermore, extension of the solar investment tax credit is having a positive effect, at least here in California, where the rebates are still decent; electricity rates are still climbing; and the sun still produces appreciable kilowatt hours despite the season.

I guess it's appropriate now to remind readers it's always the sun that gives a cloud its silver lining.

Week of: January 26-30, 2009

Symbol/Name Monday Friday +/- % Change % Since 1/05/09

DJIA/Dow Jones 8116.03 8000.86 -115.17 -1.42 -11.89

NASDAQ 1489.46 1476.42 -12.04 -.88 -9.32

Akeena Solar AKNS 2.00 1.85 -.15 -7.50 -18.86

Amtel Systems ASYS 4.17 4.04 -.13 -3.12 +1.01

Applied Mat. AMAT 9.83 9.37 -.46 -4.68 -7.88

Canadian Solar CSIQ 5.21 5.46 +.25 +1.05 -25.58

ECD (UniSolar) ENER 24.79 25.17 +.38 +1.53 -15.48

Entech (WW) ENSL.OB .36 .4075 +.0475 +13.19 +31.29

Evergreen Solr ESLR 2.12 2.21 +.09 +4.24 -38.62

First Solar FSLR 139.05 142.80 +3.75 +2.69 -9.51

GT Solar Int. SOLR 3.86 3.63 -.23 -5.96 -3.50

JA Solar JASO 2.46 2.66 +.20 +8.13 -47.75

Kyocera KYO 67.35 63.62 -.73 -.014 -11.48

LDK Solar LDK 11.54 12.10 +.56 +4.85 -18.47

MEMC Elect. WFR 13.41 13.60 +.19 +1.41 -13.71

Renesola SOL 3.39 3.68 +.29 +8.55 -28.55

Satcon SATC 1.43 1.38 -.05 -3.50 -13.75

SolarFun SOLF 4.91 4.96 +.05 +1.01 -18.96

SunPower SPWRA 28.80 33.56 +4.76 +16.52 -25.64

SunTech STP 8.85 9.41 +.56 +6.32 -30.56

Trina Solar TSL 7.47 8.08 +.61 +8.16 -19.93

Yingli YGE 5.27 5.59 +.32 +6.07 -22.90

Average % change for all solar stocks for week: +2.946%

NOTE: All above stocks have market capitization of $100M+ except Akeena Solar, Amtel Systems and Entech Solar. This listing is strictly informational and implies neither endorsement or disapproval of any stock listed. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. Stock index compiled with the use of MarketBrowser available free at www.marketbrowser.com.

Analysts See '09 Panel Prices Dropping

Part 1 of a two-part projection

There has been a lot reported about solar panel pricing for 2009. Some analysts see panels dropping others, like me, see them holding. Very few see panels rising in cost but that cannot be discounted either. Let's review.

The Information Network market research firm contends solar will continue to grow about 40% and key growth drivers such as the price of oil, polysilicon shortage and government subsidies will have a lesser effect on panel pricing (Michael McManus, Digitimes 11/19/08). Considering solar still cannot compete with conventional energy sources, an oversupply of panels can be seen short-term.

"The Information Network noted that utilization rates at solar plants are only 56% and its analysis of 103 solar manufacturers showed that panel production capacity in 2009 will be 15GW whereas only 8.3GW will be sold."

After next year, says the Network report, players in the solar market will still face varying market dynamics even as the solar industry grows. (Editor: Really? Isn't change the only constant in life?)

"High oil prices have been driving demand for solar panels but with oil prices dropping to $60 a barrel, there will be a lot less interest in alternative energy. While this may be a short-sighted view by companies, the economic realities of the global economy--highlighted by the credit crunch--mean that even those companies that want to build solar plants may have difficulty finding funding."

The Information Network report said the past shortage of polysilicon for standard panels led to a surge in thin-film panel demand. However, a counter-surge in polysilicon plants has increased production and likely will reduce demand for amorphous silicon thin-film PV with efficiencies below 8%. This will impact equipment companies like Applied Materials and Oerlikon.

The Wall Street Journal's Market Watch reported that polysilicon pricing is not only "pressured by a coming supply glut" but that the current credit crisis will drive down demand for solar panels, the biggest users of silicon ("Polysilicon prices fall to earth", Laura Mandaro, Nov. 22, 2008)

Global warming concerns and high energy costs charged up the demand for solar panels in the recent past, the article said. Stocks of solar panel makers and silicon suppliers sold off sharply recently on concerns the credit crunch is causing solar power projects to be postponed if not actually shelved. In fact, Suntech, China's premier panel maker, slashed its fourth-quarter revenue forecast. In the process, panel pricing could continue to fall.

Some 60 new companies have joined the polysilicon market during the past two years; 90% of prior manufacturing had been handled by just seven suppliers, the Market Watch article reported. Global supply of polysilicon will double in 2009, likely outpacing demand growth of 34%.

This blogger contends other factors--not considered by these analysts--could hold panel pricing flat during the new year. Part 2 will explain.