Aug 17-21: Dow, NASDAQ; Solar Slides Some More

Crude oil is credited with upsurge

The DJIA gained nearly 185 points for the week and NASDAQ went up 62. Wall Street suggests the surge is related to increased crude oil prices. The 20 Solar Stocks Index took another slide to finish at 385.89, an 11% drop from last Friday.

On July 11, 2008 crude oil was at $146.65 a barrel and the Dow took a 129 point hit that day. The high oil prices back then were bad for the stock market because expensive oil absorbs capital the could have gone to other areas. Today, as crude sits around $74 a barrel, up from $40/barrel not long ago, the increase to many suggests the economy is recovering. It seems to be the inverse from last year.

Either way, the market still seems to be inextricably tied to the cost of crude. Crude oil, the dirty stuff, that powers most forms of transportation.

Solar power is gaining popularity nationwide but even though panel prices are a record lows, the weak economy is keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines. Low panel prices come as a result of oversupply of both panels and actual silicon wafers. Thin-film companies like UniSolar, First Solar and (indirectly) Applied Materials see their sales faltering likely because crystalline panel pricing has dropped to the point of being the same or cheaper than their PV offerings. Also, high-concentration PV makers, who use lenses to magnify the output of smaller silicon chips, have less of a play in the solar market because they counted on silicon prices staying high. With today's glut of crystalline panels and wafers, the HCPV approach is neutralized.

Spiking electricity costs are still the biggest motivation to go solar and wind. As the economy bounces back and the need for power surges, solar will surge along with it. Besides, many states either have or are about to institute clean energy mandates that public utilities will have to meet. For the time being solar will have to bear these challenging times just like virtually all other sectors.

20 Solar Stocks Index Week of August 17-23, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	9321.40	9505.96	+184.56	=1.980%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	1985.52	2020.90	+62.38	+3.185	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.21	1.17	-.04	-3.420	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	4.91	5.05	+.14	+2.851	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	13.55	13.74	+.19	+1.402	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	16.54	15.98	-.56	-11.24	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	13.35	12.36	-.99	-8.009	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.2010	.1750	-.026	-14.85	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.00	1.89	-.11	-5.820	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	141.78	121.54	-20.24	-16.65	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.50	5.38	-.12	-2.230	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	4.17	3.79	-.38	-10.02	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	81.45	79.85	11.60	-2.003	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	9.22	8.94	-.28	-3.132	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	16.82	17.00	+.18	+1.070	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	5.38	5.53	+.18	+2.788	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	1.90	1.96	+.06	+3.157	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	6.70	5.51	-1.19	-21.59	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	27.65	26.25	-1.40	-5.33	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	17.64	15.30	-2.34	-15.29	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	28.31	25.93	-2.38	-9.178	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	12.43	11.07	-1.36	-12.28	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 410.71	Current 385.89	Change -43.19/-11%	Avg Stock -6.21%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Consensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

Solar Stocks Update: One Stock Stands Out

Most down but better than last week

Again, the stimulus bill signed last week which included about $80 billion in incentives and benefits for the solar industry. In fact, February 17 quite likely was the best day for the American PV industry in history. So solar stocks caught fire, right? Wrong. The 20 stocks in this index went down an average 19.38%. There's always next week, right?

This week, at a combined 7.43% down, obviously was a little better. Maybe investors are beginning to see the (sun)light; that renewable energy companies will not only create more jobs but will slow electricity rate hikes while reducing GHG emissions. Or maybe it's because spring is just a month away and the prospect of sunnier days get more people thinking solar. (This blogger always more PV installations during the baseball season when air conditioning can make electricity bills look like mortgage payments.) Or maybe it's because banking stocks are super dicey and U.S. auto stocks look even worse.

Through it all, one solar-related stock stands out: MEMC. This company started as a venture by the old Monsanto chemical conglomerate in St. Louis in 1959 becoming the Monsanto Electronic Materials Company. Today MEMC produces high-grade silicon wafers at nine facilities in all the major semiconductor markets in the world including Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, Korea, Europe and the U.S. Their new line of 300mm silicon wafers (about 12" diameter) could become extra large solar cells. If that's the intention, the cost of PV modules for large-scale installations could go down considerably. All solar stocks are down from the January 5 close of trading and the beginning of this index but MEMC has only dropped 5% in the time, the least of all 20.

It is not the intention of this index to recommend or detract from any stock listed. However, crystalline cells still run the world's electronics and convert sunlight to energy. A well-entrenched, well-distributed chip manufacturer with an active R&D arm, MEMC, is at least a brighter spot in today's PV market.

Week of February 23-27, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09
Dow Jones DJIA	7365.67	7062.93	-302.74	-4.12%	8952.89
NASDAQ	1441.23	1377.84	-63.39	-4.40	1628.03
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.47	1.06	-.41	-27.90	2.28
Amtel Systems ASYS	3.01	2.96	-.05	-1.63	4.00
Applied Materials AMAT	8.76	9.21	+.45	+5.13	10.67
Canadian Solar CSIQ	4.20	3.59	-.61	-14.53	7.00
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	24.62	21.93	-2.69	-10.93	29.33
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.272	.2602	-.0118	.-4.44	.28
Evergreen Solar ESLR	1.30	1.22	-.08	-6.16	3.60
First Solar FSLR	134.01	105.74	-28.27	-21.10	157.80
GT Solar Int. SOLR	4.22	4.27	+.05	+1.18	4.00
JA Solar JASO	2.27	2.03	-.24	-10.59	5.09
Kyocera KYO	61.34	57.80	-3.44	-5.78	71.87
LDK Solar LDK	6.12	5.12	-1.00	-16.34	14.84
MEMC Elect. WFR	13.75	15.01	+1.26	+9.16	15.76
Renesola SOL	2.37	2.42	+.05	+2.10	5.15
Satcon SATC	1.19	1.19	NC	NC	1.60
SolarFun SOLF	2.97	2.99	+.02	+.006	6.12
SunPower SPWRA	30.92	27.89	-3.03	-9.80	45.13
SunTech STP	6.86	6.09	-.77	-11.33	13.55
Trina Solar TSL	7.49	6.54	-.95	-12.69	10.09
Yingli YGE	4.07	3.89	-.18	-4.43	7.25
Percent change all 20 stocks this week:				-7.43%