Sept 8-11: Solar Outgains Dow, NASDAQ

But China's getting the PV manufacturing jobs

For the first time in seven weeks, the 20 Solar Stock Index outpaced both the DJIA and NASDAQ. Even though all three indexes finished down Friday, the 20SSI was up over 32 points to finish the week at 413.67, an 8.5% gain. The Dow finished up 164.14 this week, about 1.74% ahead and NASDAQ ended up 62 ahead, about 3% up.

Friday's sour close ended a five straight trading days of gains, so evidently short-term profit taking was the trend of the day. Still, the week was the best for all three indexes since the week ending July 24.

Seventeen stocks in the 20SSI went up. Energy Conversion Devices (ECD), which owns the UniSolar thin-film PV line, gained nearly 29% despite reporting dismal sales for the quarter ending June 30. ECD also makes nickel metal hydride batteries which power most hybrid cars today. First Solar gained 12.58% after having just signed a contract with the Chinese government to build a 2-gigawatt plant in Mongolia. First Solar's cadmium-telluride (CdTe) thin-film technology is leading the world in low-cost PV.

All-in-all it was a good week for Wall Street in a month that historically is a bad trading month. Too bad the good news for solar does include more green jobs in America. Evergreen Solar, based in Massachusetts, just began production from a new plant in China, as well. The policy of giving tax credits to oil and coal with no incentives for new solar plants under the Bush administration has allowed China, Japan, Germany and Spain to excel in this emerging industry. Solar photovoltaics is yet another industry pioneered by Americans that Americans buy from factories in other countries. Will this ever end?

20 Solar Stocks Index Week of September 8-11, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	9441.27	9605.41	+164.14	+1.735%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	2018.78	2080.90	+62.12	+3.077	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.09	1.18	+.09	+8.257	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	5.01	5.01	NC	NC	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	13.45	13.51	+.06	+.9955	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	14.90	16.58	+1.68	+11.28	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	10.41	13.40	+2.99	+28.72	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.1805	.1750	-.0055	-3.142	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	1.68	1.94	+.26	+15.47	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	121.47	136.75	+15.28	+12.58	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.19	5.35	+.16	+3.082	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	3.42	3.90	+.48	+14.03	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	87.18	88.05	+.87	+.9901	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	8.94	9.75	+.81	+9.060	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	16.59	17.21	+.62	+3.737	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	5.55	5.86	+.31	+5.585	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	1.78	1.90	+.12	+6.741	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	5.16	5.94	+.78	+15.11	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	26.07	29.15	+3.08	+11.81	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	14.85	15.97	+1.12	+7.542	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	26.43	29.07	+2.64	+9.988	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	11.83	12.98	+1.15	+9.721	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 381.27	Current 413.67	Change +32.4/+8.5%	Avg Stock +8.165%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

March 16-20: Solar Stocks Up Second Straight Week

Gain was anemic, but up is up

If the trend on Wall Street meets the hopes of Main Street then March 9 could have been the end of the recent bear market going back to last May. The Dow ended up a second straight week gaining 54.40 points or .7575%; the NASDAQ up 25.77, +1.8%. The Key Solar 20 were up an anemic .1381% but up nevertheless. Big gainers were Canadian Solar and Solar Fun. ECD (UniSolar) took the largest hit dropping 5.89, a 30.81% decline for the week.

Implementation of solar's benefits in the stimulus package are in fledgling stages. Solar manufacturer's who are getting the 30% tax investment for themselves for the first time likely will take advantage of the incentive if they are not being stymied by the credit crunch. Something's bound to give because homeowners and businesses--in California, anyway--are looking to install solar this year

As for the overall stock outlook, MarketWatch reports analysts touting the three "9-to-1 up" days since March 9. A "9-to-1 up" day refers to the volume of all NYSE-listed stocks that go up on a single day. If the number of rising stocks is the same as declining stocks volume, the ratio would be 50%. So a "9-to-1 up" day is when 90% of the total volume is up on a single day.

Such a large imbalance of up-volume "is a significant sign of positive momentum. In other words, when daily up volume leads down volume by a ration of 9-to-1 or more, that tends to be an important signal on stocks," writes Martin Zweig in his 1986 book Winning on Wall Street.

An even more bullish signal is several "9-to-1 up" days in a short period of time, said Zweig. The theory was tested recently by a finance professor and his students at Baruch College. Using historical data from 1942 through this February, the results were appreciably positive. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Significance-recent-9-1-up/story.aspx?guid={811E2796-2456-4BF7-AEA4-8F7F73BF78D8}&dist=SecMostRead

Week of March 16-20, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09
Dow Jones DJIA	7223.98	7278.38	+54.40	+.7575%	8952.89
NASDAQ	1431.50	1457.27	+25.77	+1.80	1628.03
Akeena Solar AKNS	.6702	.75	+.0798	+11.90	2.28
Amtel Systems ASYS	3.30	3.06	-.24	-7.28	4.00
Applied Materials AMAT	10.49	10.21	-.28	-2.33	10.67
Canadian Solar CSIQ	3.72	4.50	+.78	+20.96	7.00
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	19.12	13.23	-5.89	-30.81	29.33
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.1950	.1851	-.0099	.-5.08	.28
Evergreen Solar ESLR	1.42	1.37	-.05	-3.53	3.60
First Solar FSLR	129.55	120.37	-9.18	-7.09	157.80
GT Solar Int. SOLR	3.89	4.22	+.33	+15.17	4.00
JA Solar JASO	2.30	2.31	+.01	+.0043	5.09
Kyocera KYO	64.80	67.49	+2.69	+4.15	71.87
LDK Solar LDK	4.55	4.27	-.28	-6.16	14.84
MEMC Elect. WFR	15.43	14.88	-.55	-3.57	15.76
Renesola SOL	2.26	2.35	+.09	+3.98	5.15
Satcon SATC	1.21	1.25	+.04	+3.30	1.60
SolarFun SOLF	2.80	3.55	+.75	+26.78	6.12
SunPower SPWRA	24.38	22.42	-1.91	-7.84	45.13
SunTech STP	6.88	6.91	+.03	+.0044	13.55
Trina Solar TSL	7.39	7.49	+.10	+.0135	10.09
Yingli YGE	4.18	3.77	-.41	-9.81	7.25
Percent change all 20 stocks this week:				+.1381%

Solar Stocks Update: Jan. 26-30, 2009

Down month finishes upbeat, sort of

Okay, it was a dismal month for the Dow, NASDAQ and solar stocks overall. This post I added an additional stat showing percentage loss or gain since Jan. 5 when this stock index began. Only two solar stocks were up for the month, Amtel Systems and Entech Solar (formerly WorldWater & Solar Technologies). Either these companies have something good going or they just got lucky. Average solar stock loss for all twenty was over 18% but this week finished on a high note as gainers topped losers 14 to 6 with the average stock price up for the week about 3%.

Reasons for the down market involve the same suspects: Weak economy exacerbated by growing unemployment; banks still stingy about lending (our money!); and an anemic economy worldwide that can't purchase our exports (such as they are). As for solar, wintertime simply is not a good solar sales period. What's more, the lending problem has stymied several large solar projects but power purchase agreements are beginning to jump-start others which is a reason why the month has finished up. Furthermore, extension of the solar investment tax credit is having a positive effect, at least here in California, where the rebates are still decent; electricity rates are still climbing; and the sun still produces appreciable kilowatt hours despite the season.

I guess it's appropriate now to remind readers it's always the sun that gives a cloud its silver lining.

Week of: January 26-30, 2009

Symbol/Name Monday Friday +/- % Change % Since 1/05/09

DJIA/Dow Jones 8116.03 8000.86 -115.17 -1.42 -11.89

NASDAQ 1489.46 1476.42 -12.04 -.88 -9.32

Akeena Solar AKNS 2.00 1.85 -.15 -7.50 -18.86

Amtel Systems ASYS 4.17 4.04 -.13 -3.12 +1.01

Applied Mat. AMAT 9.83 9.37 -.46 -4.68 -7.88

Canadian Solar CSIQ 5.21 5.46 +.25 +1.05 -25.58

ECD (UniSolar) ENER 24.79 25.17 +.38 +1.53 -15.48

Entech (WW) ENSL.OB .36 .4075 +.0475 +13.19 +31.29

Evergreen Solr ESLR 2.12 2.21 +.09 +4.24 -38.62

First Solar FSLR 139.05 142.80 +3.75 +2.69 -9.51

GT Solar Int. SOLR 3.86 3.63 -.23 -5.96 -3.50

JA Solar JASO 2.46 2.66 +.20 +8.13 -47.75

Kyocera KYO 67.35 63.62 -.73 -.014 -11.48

LDK Solar LDK 11.54 12.10 +.56 +4.85 -18.47

MEMC Elect. WFR 13.41 13.60 +.19 +1.41 -13.71

Renesola SOL 3.39 3.68 +.29 +8.55 -28.55

Satcon SATC 1.43 1.38 -.05 -3.50 -13.75

SolarFun SOLF 4.91 4.96 +.05 +1.01 -18.96

SunPower SPWRA 28.80 33.56 +4.76 +16.52 -25.64

SunTech STP 8.85 9.41 +.56 +6.32 -30.56

Trina Solar TSL 7.47 8.08 +.61 +8.16 -19.93

Yingli YGE 5.27 5.59 +.32 +6.07 -22.90

Average % change for all solar stocks for week: +2.946%

NOTE: All above stocks have market capitization of $100M+ except Akeena Solar, Amtel Systems and Entech Solar. This listing is strictly informational and implies neither endorsement or disapproval of any stock listed. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. Stock index compiled with the use of MarketBrowser available free at www.marketbrowser.com.

Commentary: Solar Stocks Going Mainstream

About a week ago I installed the free MarketBrowser program (www.marketbrowser.com) that will track up to twelve major stock indexes and specific stocks of choice. Stock prices are updated every 20 minutes and can be viewed by list or graphically by charts. I remember in the late 70s early 80s delayed stock quotes in your desktop made a company called Quotron a lot of money. Today, with Internet access this service is free.

I selected the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ exchange as my overall stock barometers. Then I chose ten of the most prominent solar stocks to follow. These are Canadian Solar, Energy Conversion Devices (UniSolar), First Solar, SolarFun, Suntech, LDK Solar, JA Solar, SunPower, Renesola and Evergreen Solar. This international mix of companies are among the major players with the stay power to get them through the recession.


Just glancing over all 12 year-at-a-glance charts one can easily notice that nine of the ten solar stocks closely paralleled the DJIA and NASDAQ indexes (ECD-UniSolar the exception). Most started considerably higher in January; dipped in the spring; surged a little in the summer; and began the taper down with the banking failures starting in September. Just like DJIA and NASDAQ. Granted, solar stocks can be volatile but that's not unusual for companies in an emerging industry. If anything, solar stocks are looking more mainstream than ever before.

Solar stocks have taken a beating this year but then what stocks (beside defense or oil stocks-- one protecting the other), haven't had a bad year? Still, solar has shown a 25-40% annual growth rate since 1996 and even if there is a lull because of the credit crisis, the demand for solar power should not wane.

As I explained in my Nov. 26 post, there are many reasons the solar industry could be bullish for the economy. The Wall Street bailout included the solar investment tax credit extension through 2016. Residential solar buyers beginning Jan. 1 can claim a full 30% income tax credit on the price of a home installation, a credit that's been capped at $2000. Investor-owned utilities, formerly exempted from the tax credit, can claim it, too, beginning next year. This is particularly key for California utilities that are mandated to have 20% of there energy production from renewable sources by 2010, 30% by 2020.

The growth of solar companies will also be an answer to the dearth of jobs nationwide while it helps cut carbon emissions. If the Obama Administration institutes a formal carbon cap-and-trade program, it will be a boon to solar--and wind, geothermal--as well.

The day will come when solar units--whether for power or hot water or both--will be as ubiquitous on houses and buildings as computers are inside them. Mark my words.