Solar Power International 2009: A Quick Review

Lots of exhibitors--not much new

Solar Power International 2009 in Anaheim, California this week had much of the same energy--pun intended--of last year's trade show in San Diego. There seemed to be more exhibitors as the solar industry is one of the very few growth sectors in the world's economy.

Still, like last year's trade show, there seemed very little that was new.

Ascent Solar (ASTI), of Littleton, Colorado has brought its copper, indium, gallium, selenide (CIGS) thin-film solar cells to market recently and they look much like UniSolar's thin-film laminates. Both are lightweight and flexible (pictured) but the main differences are that Ascent's PV uses a plastic substrate whereas UniSolar uses a thin layer of stainless steel on which its amorphous silicon (a-Si) is deposited. Also, Ascent is claiming 10-12% efficiency of its cells as opposed to UniSolar's 7-8%. On Monday, Ascent announced NREL measured 14.01% cell efficiency for Ascent Solar CIGS material. As a result Ascent is planning to add 1% per year to its manufactured PV for worldwide sales. Obviously, this puts thin-film efficiency in parity with most standard crystalline but at significantly less cost per watt. Ascent's PV will be ideal for single-membrane (TPO) roofing solutions.

Ground array foundation posts are a lot simpler to install with Saber Solar Foundations. Saber's posts (available for various weight loads) simply screw into the ground like an auger and don't require cement for holding. The rep at at Saber's booth said this type of foundation meets most municipal building codes. Saber is located in Corona Del Mar, California and offers its drill-posts nationwide: www.saberfoundations.com.

One company offered an automatic panel cleaning solution for areas with limited rainfall (which normally "self-clean" panels). A thin spray of water and mild detergent is applied for three minutes daily to clear panels of natural soiling. Water can be recycled by placing rain gutters on the lower edge of an array. Unfortunately, in the Southwest where such an application is most needed is also experiencing a long-term drought and water is getting precious. So, for large arrays this solution could be cost prohibitive.

More solar tracking manufacturers were exhibiting than last year as production-based incentives are becoming more prevalent worldwide.

Always held in California, Solar Power International 2010 will be at the Los Angeles Convention Center, October 12-14.

Aug 17-21: Dow, NASDAQ; Solar Slides Some More

Crude oil is credited with upsurge

The DJIA gained nearly 185 points for the week and NASDAQ went up 62. Wall Street suggests the surge is related to increased crude oil prices. The 20 Solar Stocks Index took another slide to finish at 385.89, an 11% drop from last Friday.

On July 11, 2008 crude oil was at $146.65 a barrel and the Dow took a 129 point hit that day. The high oil prices back then were bad for the stock market because expensive oil absorbs capital the could have gone to other areas. Today, as crude sits around $74 a barrel, up from $40/barrel not long ago, the increase to many suggests the economy is recovering. It seems to be the inverse from last year.

Either way, the market still seems to be inextricably tied to the cost of crude. Crude oil, the dirty stuff, that powers most forms of transportation.

Solar power is gaining popularity nationwide but even though panel prices are a record lows, the weak economy is keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines. Low panel prices come as a result of oversupply of both panels and actual silicon wafers. Thin-film companies like UniSolar, First Solar and (indirectly) Applied Materials see their sales faltering likely because crystalline panel pricing has dropped to the point of being the same or cheaper than their PV offerings. Also, high-concentration PV makers, who use lenses to magnify the output of smaller silicon chips, have less of a play in the solar market because they counted on silicon prices staying high. With today's glut of crystalline panels and wafers, the HCPV approach is neutralized.

Spiking electricity costs are still the biggest motivation to go solar and wind. As the economy bounces back and the need for power surges, solar will surge along with it. Besides, many states either have or are about to institute clean energy mandates that public utilities will have to meet. For the time being solar will have to bear these challenging times just like virtually all other sectors.

20 Solar Stocks Index Week of August 17-23, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	9321.40	9505.96	+184.56	=1.980%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	1985.52	2020.90	+62.38	+3.185	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.21	1.17	-.04	-3.420	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	4.91	5.05	+.14	+2.851	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	13.55	13.74	+.19	+1.402	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	16.54	15.98	-.56	-11.24	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	13.35	12.36	-.99	-8.009	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.2010	.1750	-.026	-14.85	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.00	1.89	-.11	-5.820	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	141.78	121.54	-20.24	-16.65	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.50	5.38	-.12	-2.230	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	4.17	3.79	-.38	-10.02	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	81.45	79.85	11.60	-2.003	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	9.22	8.94	-.28	-3.132	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	16.82	17.00	+.18	+1.070	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	5.38	5.53	+.18	+2.788	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	1.90	1.96	+.06	+3.157	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	6.70	5.51	-1.19	-21.59	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	27.65	26.25	-1.40	-5.33	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	17.64	15.30	-2.34	-15.29	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	28.31	25.93	-2.38	-9.178	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	12.43	11.07	-1.36	-12.28	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 410.71	Current 385.89	Change -43.19/-11%	Avg Stock -6.21%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Consensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

Solar Show Is Big, Energized; Trends Emerging

Part 1 of a two-part report

Solar Power International '08 in San Diego has been a good conference and exhibition so far, but aside from being noticeably larger than last year's show in Long Beach, most of the exhibition's content was existing or modified versions of existing technology. Still, there were some new things and I could see trends shifting.

The opening plenary sessions featured some heavyweights including Gen. Wesley Clark (ret.), Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA), Nasdaq OMX CEO Robert Greifeld, and of course, San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders. Their comments likely can be found elsewhere on the Internet.

During the first day of exhibiting on Tuesday, interest seemed heightened by the extension of the federal solar investment tax credits included in the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 which passed and signed into law Oct. 3. (See story below.)

There were a couple of innovative solar panel variations that caught my eye. A Japanese maker Kaneka showed a prototype of a hybrid panel using both amorphous silicon (a-Si) and crystal silicon solar cells. The idea is to reduce cost per watt, of course, but also kick up the efficiency over a straight a-Si panel. Although the company intends to market the hybrid panel next year, no spec sheets were available at this time. Lumeta Solar of Irvine, CA offers the PowerPly, a 4 x 8 foot 380W crystalline panel that adheres to virtually all flat roof types (commercial or industrial applications). By sticking to roofs it eliminates racking and roof penetrations while it reduces installation time as much as 50%. The PowerPly uses a transparent Teflon cover sheet instead of glass thus reducing weight, heat build-up, and chances of cracking. At only 1 cm thick, water ponding on a roof is minimized.

Coincidentally also from Irvine, is a product that has to go in the "Wow" category. It's the Fisker Karma hybrid sports car with an optional, full-length solar roof. The Karma will do 0-60 mph in 5.8 seconds but only has a 50-mile range per charge on lithium-ion batteries. To be offered fourth quarter next year, the Karma will be built in Finland and priced at $80,000. (Evidently, the car moves so quietly the company will be offering optional interior and exterior speakers with a menu of "car noises." I kid you not.) Although the Karma exhibit was small and cluttered, it was hard to miss.

As for trends, I noticed several more thin-film companies exhibiting beside the grandpa of thin-films, UniSolar. These included Opti-Solar, Applied Materials (selling turnkey thin-film fabrication units) and Ascent Solar. First Solar, Miasole and Nanosolar were absent for reasons of their own. Thin-film PV breakthroughs in various configurations are definitely reducing PV costs per watt; in some cases low enough to make the lower efficiencies--characteristic of thin-film PV--a non-issue.

Another trend is towards more concentrating solar variations but CPV is targeted for huge utility-grade projects.