Sept 8-11: Solar Outgains Dow, NASDAQ

But China's getting the PV manufacturing jobs

For the first time in seven weeks, the 20 Solar Stock Index outpaced both the DJIA and NASDAQ. Even though all three indexes finished down Friday, the 20SSI was up over 32 points to finish the week at 413.67, an 8.5% gain. The Dow finished up 164.14 this week, about 1.74% ahead and NASDAQ ended up 62 ahead, about 3% up.

Friday's sour close ended a five straight trading days of gains, so evidently short-term profit taking was the trend of the day. Still, the week was the best for all three indexes since the week ending July 24.

Seventeen stocks in the 20SSI went up. Energy Conversion Devices (ECD), which owns the UniSolar thin-film PV line, gained nearly 29% despite reporting dismal sales for the quarter ending June 30. ECD also makes nickel metal hydride batteries which power most hybrid cars today. First Solar gained 12.58% after having just signed a contract with the Chinese government to build a 2-gigawatt plant in Mongolia. First Solar's cadmium-telluride (CdTe) thin-film technology is leading the world in low-cost PV.

All-in-all it was a good week for Wall Street in a month that historically is a bad trading month. Too bad the good news for solar does include more green jobs in America. Evergreen Solar, based in Massachusetts, just began production from a new plant in China, as well. The policy of giving tax credits to oil and coal with no incentives for new solar plants under the Bush administration has allowed China, Japan, Germany and Spain to excel in this emerging industry. Solar photovoltaics is yet another industry pioneered by Americans that Americans buy from factories in other countries. Will this ever end?

20 Solar Stocks Index Week of September 8-11, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	9441.27	9605.41	+164.14	+1.735%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	2018.78	2080.90	+62.12	+3.077	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.09	1.18	+.09	+8.257	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	5.01	5.01	NC	NC	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	13.45	13.51	+.06	+.9955	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	14.90	16.58	+1.68	+11.28	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	10.41	13.40	+2.99	+28.72	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.1805	.1750	-.0055	-3.142	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	1.68	1.94	+.26	+15.47	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	121.47	136.75	+15.28	+12.58	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.19	5.35	+.16	+3.082	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	3.42	3.90	+.48	+14.03	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	87.18	88.05	+.87	+.9901	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	8.94	9.75	+.81	+9.060	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	16.59	17.21	+.62	+3.737	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	5.55	5.86	+.31	+5.585	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	1.78	1.90	+.12	+6.741	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	5.16	5.94	+.78	+15.11	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	26.07	29.15	+3.08	+11.81	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	14.85	15.97	+1.12	+7.542	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	26.43	29.07	+2.64	+9.988	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	11.83	12.98	+1.15	+9.721	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 381.27	Current 413.67	Change +32.4/+8.5%	Avg Stock +8.165%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

Aug 17-21: Dow, NASDAQ; Solar Slides Some More

Crude oil is credited with upsurge

The DJIA gained nearly 185 points for the week and NASDAQ went up 62. Wall Street suggests the surge is related to increased crude oil prices. The 20 Solar Stocks Index took another slide to finish at 385.89, an 11% drop from last Friday.

On July 11, 2008 crude oil was at $146.65 a barrel and the Dow took a 129 point hit that day. The high oil prices back then were bad for the stock market because expensive oil absorbs capital the could have gone to other areas. Today, as crude sits around $74 a barrel, up from $40/barrel not long ago, the increase to many suggests the economy is recovering. It seems to be the inverse from last year.

Either way, the market still seems to be inextricably tied to the cost of crude. Crude oil, the dirty stuff, that powers most forms of transportation.

Solar power is gaining popularity nationwide but even though panel prices are a record lows, the weak economy is keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines. Low panel prices come as a result of oversupply of both panels and actual silicon wafers. Thin-film companies like UniSolar, First Solar and (indirectly) Applied Materials see their sales faltering likely because crystalline panel pricing has dropped to the point of being the same or cheaper than their PV offerings. Also, high-concentration PV makers, who use lenses to magnify the output of smaller silicon chips, have less of a play in the solar market because they counted on silicon prices staying high. With today's glut of crystalline panels and wafers, the HCPV approach is neutralized.

Spiking electricity costs are still the biggest motivation to go solar and wind. As the economy bounces back and the need for power surges, solar will surge along with it. Besides, many states either have or are about to institute clean energy mandates that public utilities will have to meet. For the time being solar will have to bear these challenging times just like virtually all other sectors.

20 Solar Stocks Index Week of August 17-23, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	9321.40	9505.96	+184.56	=1.980%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	1985.52	2020.90	+62.38	+3.185	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.21	1.17	-.04	-3.420	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	4.91	5.05	+.14	+2.851	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	13.55	13.74	+.19	+1.402	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	16.54	15.98	-.56	-11.24	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	13.35	12.36	-.99	-8.009	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.2010	.1750	-.026	-14.85	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.00	1.89	-.11	-5.820	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	141.78	121.54	-20.24	-16.65	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.50	5.38	-.12	-2.230	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	4.17	3.79	-.38	-10.02	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	81.45	79.85	11.60	-2.003	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	9.22	8.94	-.28	-3.132	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	16.82	17.00	+.18	+1.070	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	5.38	5.53	+.18	+2.788	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	1.90	1.96	+.06	+3.157	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	6.70	5.51	-1.19	-21.59	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	27.65	26.25	-1.40	-5.33	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	17.64	15.30	-2.34	-15.29	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	28.31	25.93	-2.38	-9.178	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	12.43	11.07	-1.36	-12.28	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 410.71	Current 385.89	Change -43.19/-11%	Avg Stock -6.21%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Consensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

Solar Stock Update: Close to Dow

Stimulus ambivalence...

The Dow dropped 430.46 points since the end of trading Monday, 5.2% down. The techy NASDAQ was less drab with a 62.2 point drop; 3.6% off since Monday. All but four solar stocks dropped this week averaging 5.41% down for all twenty in this index.

It seems the country is ambivalent about the economic stimulus as it's been hammered, chewed and emasculated by the Republicans who appear as though they won last November. Obama's bipartisan reach has been a failure but not from lack of effort. The Dems finally must realize the GOP sees bipartisanship as compromise and compromise implies weakness, a perception they used ruthlessly when they actually did control Congress awhile back. If Repubs feel they were left out of the stimulus planning--as they questionably claim--their tactics could totally backfire. The Dems might re-realize it was they who won big last November and rightfully assert themselves. But then, probably not.

Week of: February 9-13, 2009

	Monday	Friday	Up/Down	% Change
Dow Jones DJIA	8280.87	7850.41	-430.46	-5.20
NASDAQ	1591.56	1534.36	-62.20	-3.60
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.82	1.81	-.01	-.55
Amtel Systems ASYS	4.199	3.38	-.819	-20.51
Applied Materials AMAT	10.20	9.51	-.69	-6.77
Canadian Solar CSIQ	5.58	5.00	-.58	-10.40
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	28.16	28.95	+.79	+2.80
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.33	.35	+.02	+6.06
Evergreen Solar ESLR	1.77	1.66	-.11	-6.22
First Solar FSLR	148.94	144.45	-4.49	-3.02
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.50	5.13	-.37	-6.73
JA Solar JASO	2.99	2.66	-.33	-11.04
Kyocera KYO	68.40	64.00	-4.40	-6.44
LDK Solar LDK	11.15	10.65	-.50	-4.49
MEMC Elect. WFR	15.65	16.11	+.46	+2.93
Renesola SOL	4.00	3.58	-.42	-10.50
Satcon SATC	1.32	1.28	-.04	-3.04
SolarFun SOLF	5.07	4.53	-.54	-10.66
SunPower SPWRA	35.94	35.00	-.94	-2.62
SunTech STP	10.14	9.46	-.68	-6.71
Trina Solar TSL	8.35	8.54	+.19	+2.27
Yingli YGE	5.98	5.76	-.22	-3.68
Percent change all 20 stocks this week:				-5.41%

Commentary: Solar Stocks Going Mainstream

About a week ago I installed the free MarketBrowser program (www.marketbrowser.com) that will track up to twelve major stock indexes and specific stocks of choice. Stock prices are updated every 20 minutes and can be viewed by list or graphically by charts. I remember in the late 70s early 80s delayed stock quotes in your desktop made a company called Quotron a lot of money. Today, with Internet access this service is free.

I selected the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ exchange as my overall stock barometers. Then I chose ten of the most prominent solar stocks to follow. These are Canadian Solar, Energy Conversion Devices (UniSolar), First Solar, SolarFun, Suntech, LDK Solar, JA Solar, SunPower, Renesola and Evergreen Solar. This international mix of companies are among the major players with the stay power to get them through the recession.


Just glancing over all 12 year-at-a-glance charts one can easily notice that nine of the ten solar stocks closely paralleled the DJIA and NASDAQ indexes (ECD-UniSolar the exception). Most started considerably higher in January; dipped in the spring; surged a little in the summer; and began the taper down with the banking failures starting in September. Just like DJIA and NASDAQ. Granted, solar stocks can be volatile but that's not unusual for companies in an emerging industry. If anything, solar stocks are looking more mainstream than ever before.

Solar stocks have taken a beating this year but then what stocks (beside defense or oil stocks-- one protecting the other), haven't had a bad year? Still, solar has shown a 25-40% annual growth rate since 1996 and even if there is a lull because of the credit crisis, the demand for solar power should not wane.

As I explained in my Nov. 26 post, there are many reasons the solar industry could be bullish for the economy. The Wall Street bailout included the solar investment tax credit extension through 2016. Residential solar buyers beginning Jan. 1 can claim a full 30% income tax credit on the price of a home installation, a credit that's been capped at $2000. Investor-owned utilities, formerly exempted from the tax credit, can claim it, too, beginning next year. This is particularly key for California utilities that are mandated to have 20% of there energy production from renewable sources by 2010, 30% by 2020.

The growth of solar companies will also be an answer to the dearth of jobs nationwide while it helps cut carbon emissions. If the Obama Administration institutes a formal carbon cap-and-trade program, it will be a boon to solar--and wind, geothermal--as well.

The day will come when solar units--whether for power or hot water or both--will be as ubiquitous on houses and buildings as computers are inside them. Mark my words.

AZ Solar Contractor Sizes Up SD Conference

Mark Holohan, president of Code Electric in Phoenix, Arizona, said last week's Solar Power International 2008 conference in San Diego showed the incredible globalization of solar power.

"European [solar] companies are expanding to America and there's an increasing supply coming from the Far East," said Holohan, whose company is a leading installer in Arizona. He said the state of the global economy and Europe's reduced feed-in tariffs will slow solar's growth from the recent 40% but he still projects worldwide growth at 30%. The recent extension of the solar investment tax credit in the U.S. will have a lot to do with it.

"Also, the tax law has changed to include [for profit] utilities so solar could see a sizable increase from power producers, as well," said Holohan. He sees significant growth for the Arizona solar market spurred by last May's decision by the state Corporation Commission (which regulates Arizona's public utilities) to support more renewable energy funding.

Holohan noticed a marked increase in thin-film products, especially in amorphous silicon. Holohan was this writer's mentor when he ran UniSolar's residential sales program in San Diego beginning in 2002. (UniSolar is still the country's largest manufacturer of flexible amorphous silicon PV.) After successfully administering the project for two years, he was promoted by UniSolar to commercial sales director for Southern California. Among other installations, he sold the 1MW PV laminate installation at the General Motors western supply depot in Rancho Cucamonga, California and a 700kW PVL system on the Long Beach Convention Center, site of Solar Power International 2007.

Holohan's offers advice to homeowners and businesses contemplating installing PV systems.

"Solar [as an investment] is still the right thing to do," he contends. "Incentives are dynamic so always take action to secure them for yourselves. It doesn't make sense to wait for a breakthrough because the incentives for solar are always more dynamic than the technology."

In the Phoenix area, Holohan can be contacted at markh@code-electric.com.