Solar Power International 2009: A Quick Review

Lots of exhibitors--not much new

Solar Power International 2009 in Anaheim, California this week had much of the same energy--pun intended--of last year's trade show in San Diego. There seemed to be more exhibitors as the solar industry is one of the very few growth sectors in the world's economy.

Still, like last year's trade show, there seemed very little that was new.

Ascent Solar (ASTI), of Littleton, Colorado has brought its copper, indium, gallium, selenide (CIGS) thin-film solar cells to market recently and they look much like UniSolar's thin-film laminates. Both are lightweight and flexible (pictured) but the main differences are that Ascent's PV uses a plastic substrate whereas UniSolar uses a thin layer of stainless steel on which its amorphous silicon (a-Si) is deposited. Also, Ascent is claiming 10-12% efficiency of its cells as opposed to UniSolar's 7-8%. On Monday, Ascent announced NREL measured 14.01% cell efficiency for Ascent Solar CIGS material. As a result Ascent is planning to add 1% per year to its manufactured PV for worldwide sales. Obviously, this puts thin-film efficiency in parity with most standard crystalline but at significantly less cost per watt. Ascent's PV will be ideal for single-membrane (TPO) roofing solutions.

Ground array foundation posts are a lot simpler to install with Saber Solar Foundations. Saber's posts (available for various weight loads) simply screw into the ground like an auger and don't require cement for holding. The rep at at Saber's booth said this type of foundation meets most municipal building codes. Saber is located in Corona Del Mar, California and offers its drill-posts nationwide: www.saberfoundations.com.

One company offered an automatic panel cleaning solution for areas with limited rainfall (which normally "self-clean" panels). A thin spray of water and mild detergent is applied for three minutes daily to clear panels of natural soiling. Water can be recycled by placing rain gutters on the lower edge of an array. Unfortunately, in the Southwest where such an application is most needed is also experiencing a long-term drought and water is getting precious. So, for large arrays this solution could be cost prohibitive.

More solar tracking manufacturers were exhibiting than last year as production-based incentives are becoming more prevalent worldwide.

Always held in California, Solar Power International 2010 will be at the Los Angeles Convention Center, October 12-14.

June 8-12: Dow, NASDAQ Squeak Up; Solar Beats 'Em

Akeena Solar, Evergreen and LDK biggest gainers

Although the DJIA gained only .04% for the week it logged the biggest 14-week gain since 1975. The NASDAQ index was up only .005% but is now 14% above its January 5 close and 44% higher than its woeful 1293.85 close on March 6. The 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI) is up 12% and 75% respectively for the same dates.

Akeena Solar (AKNS) was over 27% up from last week in near-record trading. Akeena was given the 2009 Industry Innovator Award June 8 from Solar Energy Industries Assn. Akeena's Andalay AC system is the industry's first plug-and-play PV system for homeowners and small businesses.

Evergreen Solar (ESLR), up nearly 38% this week, makes a proprietary String Ribbon technology that grows thin strips of multi-crystalline silicon which are then cut into wafers. The method makes wafers cheaper producing higher margins. With crude oil prices climbing again, this advanced chip-making process bodes well for Evergreen.

LDK Solar (LDK), a major Chinese silicon wafer manufacturer, gained over 34% possibly on the increasing seriousness of the Chinese government in solar power. This, added to crude prices rising and lending/financing problems easing points to silicon wafer manufacturing as key to meeting the potential burgeoning demand.

Week of June8-12, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	8763.13	8799.26	+33.13	+.0412%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	1849.42	1858.80	+9.38	+.0507	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.24	1.58	+.34	+27.41	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	5.07	5.71	+.64	+12.62	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	10.98	11.23	+.25	+2.276	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	15.70	14.62	-1.08	-7.37	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	17.16	17.82	+.66	+3.846	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.19	.2021	+.0121	+6.368	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	1.90	2.62	+.72	+37.89	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	182.10	183.80	+1.70	+.0093	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	6.30	6.89	+.59	+9.360	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	5.13	5.67	+.54	+10.52	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	76.89	76.94	+.05	+.0065	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	9.31	12.50	+3.19	+34.26	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	19.79	20.16	+.37	+.0186	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	6.21	6.59	+.38	+6.119	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	2.25	1.76	-.49	-27.84	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	8.14	7.72	-.42	-5.440	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	31.57	31.90	+.33	+.0104	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	17.11	18.17	+1.06	+6.195	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	27.35	24.86	-2.49	-9.613	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	14.91	13.76	-1.15	-8.357	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 459.30	Current 464.50	Change +5.2/+1.1%	Avg Stock +5.05%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

Solar Stocks Average Up Over 41% for Week

Three stocks up over 70%

If the key 20 Solar Stocks Index (20SSI) were a Broadway show premiering March 9, the reviews would be boffo. The last minute surge on the date marks the beginning of a young bull market that's seen the Dow up 5.53% and the NASDAQ up 6.15%. Not to be outdone is the 20SSI rising a stupendous 54.25% from the opening bell March 9 through end of trading today.

This week was the biggie with DJIA up 6.83%; NASDAQ +6.03% and this index rocketing 41.54%. Three gainers were up 70% or more: Entech Solar, Evergreen Solar and JA Solar with four more in the 60-70% range. As mentioned in yesterday's post the reasons range from guaranteed loans for solar manufacturers; fat contracts for utility-scale projects getting underway; and the SEIA's report that 2008 was the third straight record-breaking year for growth in the PV industry.

There's another reason, too, that should not be overlooked. Despite the weather in parts of the country, it is springtime, a time when people get serious about installing solar to ease their power bills this summer thanks to that modern-day wonder called air conditioning. A good 40% of a typical summer electricity bill--commercial or residential--is just for keeping cool. For those smart--and lucky--enough, that abundance of summertime sun can be converted to the coolness of an oasis with solar technology. Better yet for our country it creates badly needed jobs while it reduces emissions. Bearing those factors in mind, solar stocks seem a pretty safe bet.

Week of March 23-27, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09
Dow Jones DJIA	7278.38	7776.18	+497.80	+6.830%	8952.89
NASDAQ	1457.27	1545.20	+87.93	+6.030	1628.03
Akeena Solar AKNS	.75	1.11	+.36	+48.00	2.28
Amtel Systems ASYS	3.06	3.46	+.40	+48.00	4.00
Applied Materials AMAT	10.21	11.23	+1.02	+9.990	10.67
Canadian Solar CSIQ	4.50	5.76	+1.26	+28.00	7.00
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	13.23	15.77	+2.54	+19.191	29.33
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.1851	+.32	+.1349	+72.87	.28
Evergreen Solar ESLR	1.37	2.33	+.96	+70.00	3.60
First Solar FSLR	120.37	147.36	+27.99	+22.42	157.80
GT Solar Int. SOLR	3.89	4.22	+.33	+15.17	4.00
JA Solar JASO	2.31	3.93	+1.62	+70.12	5.09
Kyocera KYO	67.49	68.07	+.58	+.0085	71.87
LDK Solar LDK	4.27	7.19	+2.92	+68.38	14.84
MEMC Elect. WFR	14.88	18.38	+3.50	+23.52	15.76
Renesola SOL	2.35	3.70	+1.35	+57.84	5.15
Satcon SATC	1.25	1.63	+.37	+30.04	1.60
SolarFun SOLF	3.55	4.67	+1.12	+31.55	6.12
SunPower SPWRA	22.42	25.30	+2.83	+12.59	45.13
SunTech STP	6.91	11.65	+4.74	+68.59	13.55
Trina Solar TSL	7.49	12.33	+4.84	+64.62	10.09
Yingli YGE	3.77	6.15	+2.38	+63.12	7.25
Percent change all 20 stocks this week:				+41.54%

PV Industry Having Great Week

If you haven't been watching, solar stocks are doing well again this week. Tomorrow's update will show just how good. Here are some other good signs for the PV industry:

Thin-film maker First Solar Inc (FSLR) has been contracted to build a 30-megawatt photovoltaic power plant with power cooperative Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association in Northeastern New Mexico, both companies reported Tuesday.

Called Cimarron I Solar Project it will be located on a 250-acre parcel of land in New Mexico's Colfax County and produce enough power to serve 9,000 homes. Completion is expected by the end of next year. It will use 500,000 First Solar panels made of copper, indium, germanium and selenium (CIGS).

Although specific financial terms were not released Tri-State has contracted to purchase the electricity output for 25 years in a power purchase agreement. (Reuters, 3/25/09)
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Solyndra Inc., a privately-held solar cell manufacturer, is the first recipient of an offer for a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) loan guarantee under Title XVII of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Solyndra, a Fremont, California-based manufacturer of innovative cylindrical photovoltaic systems, will use the proceeds of a $535 million loan from the U.S. Treasury's Federal Financing Bank to expand its solar panel manufacturing capacity in California.

"The DOE Loan Guarantee Program funding will enable Solyndra to achieve the economies of scale needed to deliver solar electricity at prices that are competitive with utility rates. This expansion is really about creating new jobs while meaningfully impacting global warming," said Solyndra CEO and founder, Dr. Chris Gronet. Most solar incentives are geared to assist end-users to purchase PV systems. The DOE loan guarantee affords solar panel and related equipment makers assistance needed to expand. The country's desperate need to create more jobs makes such a program all the more timely. (more at http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Solyndra-Offered-535-Million-bw-14703419.html)
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Despite last year's drooping economy it was the third straight record year for growth in the solar industry. The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) released its 2008 U.S. Solar Industry Year in Review today, highlighting 2008's record growth. The report notes that 1,265 megawatts (MW) of solar power of all types were installed in 2008, bringing total U.S. solar power capacity up 17 percent to 8,775 MW. The 2008 figure included 342 MW of solar photovoltaic (PV), 139 MWTh (thermal equivalent) of solar water heating, 762 MWTh of pool heating and an estimated 21 MW of solar space heating and cooling. SEIA is the recognized solar advocate for the industry in Washington.

Care & Handling of the Solar Tax Credit

By now most know the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 extended the solar investment tax credit (ITC) through 2016 and the $2000 cap for residential solar installations has been dropped allowing for the full 30% credit businesses get. The extension, as it turns out, might be the only good thing for Main Street in a major chunk of legislation aimed at fixing Wall Street. It's a very good thing, to be sure, but let's review the details.




The Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (DSIRE, see Related Links) summarized the solar electric ITC extension in October thus:

"A taxpayer may claim a credit of 30% of qualified expenditures for a system that serves a dwelling unit located in the U.S. used as a residence by the taxpayer. Expenditures with respect to the equipment are treated as made when the installation is completed. If the installation is on a new home, the 'placed in service' date is the date of occupancy by the homeowner. Expenditures include labor costs for onsite preparation, assembly, or original system installation and for piping or wiring to interconnect a system to the home. If the federal tax credit exceeds tax liability, the excess amount may be carried forward to the succeeding taxable year... Consumers who receive other incentives are advised to consult with a tax professional regarding how to calculate this federal tax credit."

DSRIRE went on to say that in case of joint occupancy, the maximum qualifying amount allowed is $6,667 per occupant. Lifewise, the credit may be claimed proportionally by how much each individual paid. Finally, the law states the PV installation must be used as a residence but does not have to be the principal residence to qualify. Any unused tax credit from the first tax year may be carried over to the next tax year.

It is particularly important to consult a CPA or tax attorney if your state offers a solar rebate which is taken with the federal tax credit. Normally, the tax credit is taken on the balance after the rebate is deducted from the total installation cost. If however, one takes the tax credit against the whole installation cost along with the rebate, the rebate could be taxed as income. At present, the issue is better determined by a professional who also considers the solar customer's tax situation.

A four-page set of frequently asked questions about the solar tax credit was produced by the Solar Energy Industries Association, the national trade organization for the solar industry. It is available at: http://seia.org/galleries/pdf/ITC_Frequently_Asked_Questions_10_9_08.pdf