May 18-22: Dow, NASDAQ Up Smidgen; Solar Up 5.67%

Looming GM bankruptcy blights Dow's week

With just days left for General Motors officials to complete a major financial revamping, the former cornerstone of blue chippers could file for bankruptcy next week. Although this action would enable the troubled automaker to get $30M in federal money, it drove down GM's stock by 25% today and took several other down with it.

The DJIA finish up just .001% for the week; the NASDAQ was up .007%. The 20 Solar Stocks Index (20SSI) fared better at 5.667% up regaining about one-quarter of last week's losses.

Solarfun Power Holdings was the biggest gainer for the week at +30.54% attributed to a strong first quarter earnings report released Tuesday.

Canadian Solar Inc (CSIQ) was close behind, gaining nearly 30% since Monday. The AP reported yesterday that CSI's "healthy balance sheet, product line strategy and underappreciated stock prompted an analyst to upgrad the solar energy product manufacturer, sending shares jumping."

Trina Solar was another PV industry winner climbing nearly 23% during the week. Evidently, investor sentiments are positive for solar stocks seen as being driven up by rising crude oil prices.

Solar stock watchers seem convinced the industry hit bottom in early March. Dow and NASDAQ averages generally have climbed since then, as well.
Week of May 18-22, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09
Dow Jones DJIA	8268.64	8277.32	+8.68	+.0010	8952.89
NASDAQ	1680.14	1692.01	+11.87	+.0070	1628.03
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.16	1.12	-.04	-3.571	2.28
Amtel Systems ASYS	4.13	4.50	+.37	+8.958	4.00
Applied Materials AMAT	10.71	10.67	-.04	-.0037	10.67
Canadian Solar CSIQ	7.71	10.01	+2.30	+29.83	7.00
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	-14.80	15.06	+.26	+1.757	29.33
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.22	.191	-.029	-15.18	.28
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.08	1.76	-.32	-18.18	3.60
First Solar FSLR	177.43	191.72	+14.29	+8.054	157.80
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.37	6.25	-+.88	+16.38	4.00
JA Solar JASO	3.11	3.70	+.59	+18.97	5.09
Kyocera KYO	77.51	76.68	-.83	-1.082	71.87
LDK Solar LDK	8.02	7.77	-.25	-3.217	14.84
MEMC Elect. WFR	15.74	17.06	+1.32	+8.386	15.76
Renesola SOL	3.36	3.69	+.33	+9.821	5.15
Satcon SATC	2.05	2.02	-.03	-1.485	1.60
SolarFun SOLF	4.78	6.24	+1.46	+30.54	6.12
SunPower SPWRA	25.05	26.60	+1.55	+6.187	45.13
SunTech STP	14.34	12.48	-1.86	-14.90	13.55
Trina Solar TSL	16.98	20.73	+3.75	+22.08	10.09
Yingli YGE	8.50	9.35	+.85	+10.00	7.25
Percent change all 20 stocks this week:				+5.667%

Solar Rebate Reservations Down Slightly in SD

Still too early to show 2009 trend

Katrina Perez, non-residential program manager for the CA Solar Initiative in San Diego (SDGE area), was asked by Solar Advice for Free to compare the beginning of 2009 to 2008 for reserving rebates for solar installations other than residential. Although little data is available, applications were down just 11% from last year.

"In a comparison of Jan & Feb of 2008 to Jan & Feb of 2009 - nine applications [were submitted] in January and the first half February 2008 compared to eight in 2009 [for the same period], an 11% decrease," said Perez, a staffer at the CA Center for Sustainable Energy. She also said the last quarter of '08 CCSE saw just ten applications submitted. "The number of applications that are received in the Non-res sector has been sporadic in the past 2 years," she added. Adjacent graphs show non-residential rebate activity (SDGE territory) since the CSI began January, 2007. (Click for larger images.)

As of today, issued non-residential rebate reservation letters from CCSE amount to 1.26MW worth of projects; only 9.8% of the 12.87MW available in Step 5 of the CSI declining rebate schedule. An anemic 120kW of rebate applications are presently under review at CCSE. (See CSI Statewide Trigger Point Tracker at http://www.sgip-ca.com/.)

California trails only Germany and Japan in total photovoltaic installations, economic uncertainty and tight credit are influencing decisions to go solar. It's also much too early to tell what the new stimulus package--including about $80 billion in solar incentives--is having on the industry. If solar stocks are any indication, it's not a pretty picture.

CA Home Solar Sales 2009: Early Results

John Supp, program manager of the CA Solar Initiative at the California Center for Sustainable Energy (CCSE), said 71 residential solar rebate applications have been processed thus far this month by SDG&E customers with another 12 apps just hitting his desk. Nearly twice as many reserved rebates in 2008 compared to 2007. Despite the weak economy, Supp said this is a good start compared to a year ago and is a likely reflection of the improved federal tax credit.

"A lot of buyers are purchasing 5kWDC systems so the 30% tax credit means $9000 instead of the $2000 maximum allowed [from 2006 through 2008]," said Supp. He went on to say it appears installed costs have dropped from December to this month. Average installed cost last month in San Diego was $8.40/WDC; this month it's about $7.98/WDC installed but he adds this if from a relively small sampling. This compares to $8.52/W in the PG&E territory (Santa Barbara to San Francisco) and $9.05/W in the SoCal Edison area (Central CA).

Has there been a major drop in panel costs as was widely anticipated late last year?

"There's been a lag in the market and supply to see much noticeable change in panel prices. In fact, statewide installed prices are up from the last six months of '08," Supp remarked. Average installed costs for home PV systems from July-December averaged $8.17/WDC and this month it's up to $8.70 statewide with the limited data available. Supp surmises the impact of the 30% solar tax credit [with the CSI rebate], which defrays so much more of the cost for the end user, could be the culprit. Cost data has fluctuated differently over the years in each utility territory and there is the obvious answer. Still, it's much too early to say if this will be a continuing trend.

In 2007, when the CA Solar Initiative (Million Solar Roofs) went into effect, 560 rebate applications were filed with CCSE by SDG&E customers with only 25 were cancellations (4.46%). Last year 1074 applications were processed with just 11 cancelling (1%).

"The fact so many went solar last year is exciting for the industry in that the rebate was reducing from the initial $2.50 per watt and the tax credit was just $2000," said Supp. "It seems people are realizing that while incentives are depleting, solar's value keeps rising."