Showing posts with label California Solar Initiative. Show all posts
Showing posts with label California Solar Initiative. Show all posts

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Solar Pricing at Historical Lows


Industry continues to rise...

Last January saw solar panel pricing hit historical lows worldwide. As a result and despite the economy, the solar photovoltaic industry is having a pretty good year both at the commercial and residential levels.


Granted, the California Solar Initiative's rebates have triggered down to rather meager levels and some say this has tempered the fall of panel pricing in the state with the country's largest monetary stake in solar power. This writer disagrees.

Competition in California for solar business has never been fiercer. Since the nation's financial debacle nearly two years ago, scores of electrical contractors around the country who lost new-construction or repair work or simply ignored PV, have now jumped into PV with both feet.

PV and Growth

Furthermore, as the solar industry is one of the few growth sectors in the nation's staggering economy, PV equipment makers and marketers continue streaming into California and neighboring states. Fueled by the federal solar investment tax credit and renewable energy standards demanded by state governments on utilities, the PV picture gets rosier. Finally, the cost of electricity continues to rise, though at a rather stilted pace for the time being. In short, everybody who's anybody in solar is in or coming to California. And it's spreading.

Solar and Wall Street

Solar stocks, as can be seen in this blog's weekly update, have traveled much the same path as other tech issues. To be sure, solar stock prices are down from pre-crisis levels in 2008 but so are virtually every other stock on Wall Street. Still, there have been more solar start-ups and few failures worldwide and more foreign PV manufacturers are setting up plants stateside. Besides, after a generation of stupendous growth in the stock market, investors are eschewing risk and looking more to bonds for safety, anyway.

Solar Financing

When this writer began selling solar installations in 2002, most prospects had plenty of home equity. They could get an easy $50,000 home equity line of credit with a simple phone call to their bank. Those days are gone, of course, so the PV industry had to get creative. Since then solar manufacturers and dealers have answered the soft market with leasing options, same-as-cash unsecured "bridge" loans, and more standard--and unsecured--term loans.

So, believe it or not, it's a good time to go solar.

How good is it? Find out in my next post.


allvoices

Friday, October 9, 2009

Oct 5-9: Solar Outperforms Dow, NASDAQ


All-around good week for stocks


Since last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained over 377 point to finish at 9864.94, the year's highest. The NASDAQ rose 91 points to end today at 2139.28. Percentage gains for both were nearly 4% and 4.5% respectively. The 20 Solar Stocks Index (20SSI) gained nearly 25 points, a 6% rise for the week.

MarketWatch reported IBM rallied the technology sector which Alcoa and others fed rising optimism about third-quarter earnings reports. IBM was up 3.64 or 3% to 125.93 likely related to Barclay's going bullish on the tech giant. Both Intel and AMD went up, as well.

Eighteen in the 20SSI rose with Trina, SunPower, SunTech and Yingli leading the others. The average stock in the index rose 5.6% easily outpacing the Dow and NASDAQ. After two dismal weeks solar makes the welcome rebound based on several likely reasons. Cost of panels remain down while the cost of electricity here in California continues to rise rapidly. There were 200 applications received by the CA Center for Sustainable Energy (which administers the CA rebate for SDG&E customers) during September. That figure coupled with the 350 applications in July means the rebate currently at $1.55 per installed AC watt will trigger down to $1.10 much sooner than thought. The California Solar Initiative is a good model for other states in that it stimulates solar PV sales in a severely depressed economy.

20 Solar Stocks Index Week of Oct 5-9, 2009

Monday Open Friday Close Up/Down % Change Close 1/5/09* Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA 9487.67 9864.94 +377.27 +3.976% 8952.89 6626.95
NASDAQ 2048.11 2139.28 +91.17 +4.451 1628.03 1293.85






Akeena Solar AKNS 1.07 1.16 _.09 +8.411 2.28 .61
Amtel Systems ASYS 5.10 5.28 +.18 +3.529 4.00 2.73
Applied Materials AMAT 12.68 13.22 +.54 +4.258 10.67 8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ 15.99 17.76 +1.77 +11.07 7.00 3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER 10.79 10.89 +.10 +.9267 29.33 17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB .1799 .1740 -.0059 -3.390 .28 .23
Evergreen Solar ESLR 1.77 1.81 +.04 +2.259 3.60 1.03
First Solar FSLR 150.00 156.69 +6.69 +4.450 157.80 108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR 5.28 5.71 +.43 -7.765 4.00 4.02
JA Solar JASO 3.88 4.01 +.13 +3.350 5.09 1.91
Kyocera KYO 86.70 89.25 +1.55 +2.941 71.87 54.21
LDK Solar LDK 7.93 8.28 +.35 +4.413 14.84 4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR 15.38 16.30 +.92 +5.981 15.76 13.68
Renesola SOL 4.51 4.77 +.26 +5.764 5.15 2.1201
Satcon SATC 2.01 1.96 -.05 -2.551 1.60 1.23
SolarFun SOLF 5.24 5.60 +.36 +6.870 6.12 2.30
SunPower SPWRA 27.53 31.49 +3.96 +14.38 45.13 23.39
SunTech STP 13.98 15.55 +1.57 +11.23 13.55 5.34
Trina Solar TSL 29.82 34.45 +4.63 +15.52 10.09 7.23
Yingli YGE 11.69 13.15 +1.46 +12.48 7.25 3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative: Previous 411.53 Current 436.34 Change +24.81/+6.02% Avg Stock +5.581% 1/05/09* 415.41 3/06/09** 266.01
* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** The Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.
NOTE: All above stocks have market capitization of $100M+ except Akeena Solar, Amtel Systems
and Entech Solar. This listing is strictly informational and implies neither endorsement or disapproval
of any stock listed. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.



allvoices

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Solar Rebate Reservations Down Slightly in SD


Still too early to show
2009 trend

Katrina Perez, non-residential program manager for the CA Solar Initiative in San Diego (SDGE area), was asked by Solar Advice for Free to compare the beginning of 2009 to 2008 for reserving rebates for solar installations other than residential. Although little data is available, applications were down just 11% from last year.

"In a comparison of Jan & Feb of 2008 to Jan & Feb of 2009 - nine applications [were submitted] in January and the first half February 2008 compared to eight in 2009 [for the same period], an 11% decrease," said Perez, a staffer at the CA Center for Sustainable Energy. She also said the last quarter of '08 CCSE saw just ten applications submitted. "The number of applications that are received in the Non-res sector has been sporadic in the past 2 years," she added. Adjacent graphs show non-residential rebate activity (SDGE territory) since the CSI began January, 2007. (Click for larger images.)

As of today, issued non-residential rebate reservation letters from CCSE amount to 1.26MW worth of projects; only 9.8% of the 12.87MW available in Step 5 of the CSI declining rebate schedule. An anemic 120kW of rebate applications are presently under review at CCSE. (See CSI Statewide Trigger Point Tracker at http://www.sgip-ca.com/.)

California trails only Germany and Japan in total photovoltaic installations, economic uncertainty and tight credit are influencing decisions to go solar. It's also much too early to tell what the new stimulus package--including about $80 billion in solar incentives--is having on the industry. If solar stocks are any indication, it's not a pretty picture.


allvoices
 

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