Nov 2-6: Dow, NASDAQ Up Over 3%; Solar Almost 2%

Solar holding its own...

MarketWatch reported today says a surge in GE stocks helped the DJIA go above 10,000 again after a two-week losing period. Week's end closing showed the Dow up 3.2% and NASDAQ up 3.3% while solar stocks in the 20SSI gained about 1.9% since last Friday.

As expected, declines for the Dow were lead by financials and conventional energy firms, which were effected by a $2 per barrel drop in oil. MarketPlace said about half of the Dow's gain could be attributed to a 6.2% spike in GE after analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein and Oppenheimer upgraded the conglomerate to a "outperform" rating.

Market players on Wall Street are disgruntled with unemployment figures but all-out panic has been tempered simply by 22 consecutive months of job losses. Bulls are pointing to month-to-month slowing of job cuts as a sign a full-blown turnaround is on its way, mayber as early as next quarter.

Meanwhile, both residential and commercial solar activity seems to be percolating nicely in California. The Ca Center for Sustainable Energy, which administers the CA Solar Initiative rebate for SDG&E customers, received 200 rebate reservations for residential installations in September after a flat August but a 350 reservation request month in July. Of course, high air-conditioning usage during these months resulting in fat electric bills can account for the solar backlash. But the surprising number of rebate reservations comes even as the rebate has triggered down to $1.55 per installed AC watt in July and now stands at $1.10 in the SDG&E service area.

20 Solar Stocks Index Week of Nov 2-6, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	9712.73	10023.42	+310.69	+3.198%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	2045.11	2112.44	+67.33	+3.292	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	.94	.93	-.01	-1.075	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	5.40	5.10	-.30	-5.882	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	12.20	12.40	+.20	+1.639	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	14.58	16.78	+2.20	+15.09	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	10.77	11.49	+.72	+6.685	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.1450	.1400	-.0050	-3.571	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	1.45	1.42	-.03	-1.398	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	121.93	117.93	-4.00	-3.391	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.25	5.24	-.01	-.1908	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	3.83	3.71	-.12	-3.234	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	83.47	83.95	-.48	-.5750	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	6.78	5.74	-1.04	-18.12	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	12.41	12.66	+.25	+2.014	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	3.68	3.95	+.27	-7.336	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	2.04	2.00	-.04	-2.000	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	4.75	5.12	+.37	+7.789	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	24.81	26.60	+1.79	+7.214	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	12.67	12.70	+.03	+.2367	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	32.52	38.18	+5.66	+17.40	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	11.58	12.14	+.56	+4.835	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 371.21	Current 378.18	Change +6.97/+1.87%	Avg Stock +.8%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** The Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.
NOTE: All above stocks have market capitization of $100M+ except Akeena Solar, Amtel Systems
and Entech Solar. This listing is strictly informational and implies neither endorsement or disapproval
of any stock listed. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

CA Rebate Process Changes July 1

Update: Residential rebate in SDG&E region triggered down June 17

Katrina Perez, non-residential program manager at the CA Center for Sustainable Energy (CCSE), emailed the changes to the rebate process for the CA Solar Initiative beginning July 1.

New Module List: There will be a revised eligible solar panels list following Senate Bill 1 guidelines. The list will be virtually the same as the New Solar Homes Program list.

New Documentation Requirements:

Residential

§ Signed Residential Energy Efficiency Disclosure Form
§ Signed Field Verification Certification Form

Non-Residential

§ Signed Non-Residential Energy Efficiency Disclosure Form
§ Signed Non-Residential Energy Efficiency Commitment Agreement (if applicable)
§ Signed Field Verification Certification Form
§ Copy of Retro-commissioning Report (if applicable)

Non-Residential New Construction

§ Proof of at least 15% above Title 24 Standards
§ Building Site Plan
§ Copy of New Construction Building Permit

The new documents will be released shortly and posted on our website: www.energycenter.org . For now, see the attached document for a more detailed description of the requirements

On the brighter side, PG&E filed a letter on behalf of all CSI program administrators that would, upon CPUC approval:

* Remove the requirement of customer copy of bill
* Remove original signature requirements
* Remove project cost breakdown worksheet
* Clarify warranty requirements
* Extend commercial applications to 18 months


Rebate drops to $1.55 in SDG&E region

After announcing Monday the Step 4 allotment was nearly exhausted, Matt Messina of CCSE announced Wednesday that the allotment was met. So, the rebate goes from $1.90/Wac (26 cents, if production-based incentive) to $1.55 (22 cents, PBI). All rebate applications will now assume the new rates.

Solar Rebate Reservations Down Slightly in SD

Still too early to show 2009 trend

Katrina Perez, non-residential program manager for the CA Solar Initiative in San Diego (SDGE area), was asked by Solar Advice for Free to compare the beginning of 2009 to 2008 for reserving rebates for solar installations other than residential. Although little data is available, applications were down just 11% from last year.

"In a comparison of Jan & Feb of 2008 to Jan & Feb of 2009 - nine applications [were submitted] in January and the first half February 2008 compared to eight in 2009 [for the same period], an 11% decrease," said Perez, a staffer at the CA Center for Sustainable Energy. She also said the last quarter of '08 CCSE saw just ten applications submitted. "The number of applications that are received in the Non-res sector has been sporadic in the past 2 years," she added. Adjacent graphs show non-residential rebate activity (SDGE territory) since the CSI began January, 2007. (Click for larger images.)

As of today, issued non-residential rebate reservation letters from CCSE amount to 1.26MW worth of projects; only 9.8% of the 12.87MW available in Step 5 of the CSI declining rebate schedule. An anemic 120kW of rebate applications are presently under review at CCSE. (See CSI Statewide Trigger Point Tracker at http://www.sgip-ca.com/.)

California trails only Germany and Japan in total photovoltaic installations, economic uncertainty and tight credit are influencing decisions to go solar. It's also much too early to tell what the new stimulus package--including about $80 billion in solar incentives--is having on the industry. If solar stocks are any indication, it's not a pretty picture.

CA Home Solar Sales 2009: Early Results

John Supp, program manager of the CA Solar Initiative at the California Center for Sustainable Energy (CCSE), said 71 residential solar rebate applications have been processed thus far this month by SDG&E customers with another 12 apps just hitting his desk. Nearly twice as many reserved rebates in 2008 compared to 2007. Despite the weak economy, Supp said this is a good start compared to a year ago and is a likely reflection of the improved federal tax credit.

"A lot of buyers are purchasing 5kWDC systems so the 30% tax credit means $9000 instead of the $2000 maximum allowed [from 2006 through 2008]," said Supp. He went on to say it appears installed costs have dropped from December to this month. Average installed cost last month in San Diego was $8.40/WDC; this month it's about $7.98/WDC installed but he adds this if from a relively small sampling. This compares to $8.52/W in the PG&E territory (Santa Barbara to San Francisco) and $9.05/W in the SoCal Edison area (Central CA).

Has there been a major drop in panel costs as was widely anticipated late last year?

"There's been a lag in the market and supply to see much noticeable change in panel prices. In fact, statewide installed prices are up from the last six months of '08," Supp remarked. Average installed costs for home PV systems from July-December averaged $8.17/WDC and this month it's up to $8.70 statewide with the limited data available. Supp surmises the impact of the 30% solar tax credit [with the CSI rebate], which defrays so much more of the cost for the end user, could be the culprit. Cost data has fluctuated differently over the years in each utility territory and there is the obvious answer. Still, it's much too early to say if this will be a continuing trend.

In 2007, when the CA Solar Initiative (Million Solar Roofs) went into effect, 560 rebate applications were filed with CCSE by SDG&E customers with only 25 were cancellations (4.46%). Last year 1074 applications were processed with just 11 cancelling (1%).

"The fact so many went solar last year is exciting for the industry in that the rebate was reducing from the initial $2.50 per watt and the tax credit was just $2000," said Supp. "It seems people are realizing that while incentives are depleting, solar's value keeps rising."