Electricity Rates to Increase 13% Nationwide

Preparing for the Smart Grid, renewable technologies

Electricity rate increases nationwide will range from 3 to 33% with the average at 12.64%. The statistics appear in the AEE 2012 Electricity Outlook prepared by Southern California Edison (http://goo.gl/uGmHD).

SCE reported the final decision on its 7.55% across-the-board rate increase request is due in March and would take effect in May. With approval, the increase will amount to $6.285 billion in added income. In the same report rates for PG&E were expected to rise 6.4%.

The report went on to detailed why SCE needs the funds. They included infrastructure replacement; operations and maintenance expense for capital-related projects, regulatory mandates, wildfire insureance and employee benefits; and Smart Grid enhancements. These include replacing poles, wires and transformers; increasing grid security; adding smart grid components need to integrate more renewable energy; getting the SCE region ready for plug-in electric vehicles; and maintaining a skilled work force.

Residential tiers at SCE would change as follows: Baseline (T1) from 12.5 to 13.1 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) or 5%; Tier 2 from 14.8 to 15.5 (5%); Tier 3 from 22.9 to 29.1 (27%); Tier 4 from 26.4 to 32.6 (23%) and Tier 5 from 29.9 to 36.1 (21%). CARE (discounted) customers will see a 14% increase in Tiers 3-5.

Steep as they are, these increases could be a lot worse. SCE serves some 13 million residential and commercial customers so the burden is spread around. SCE is not only the largest utility in California but it comprises 80% of the gross revenues of its parent, Edison International in New Jersey.

With most states adopting renewable energy standards, ratepayers will see increases related both to the increasing costs of fossil fuels but also in upgrading infrastructure for the Smart Grid and renewable energy technologies. As always, the best way to mitigate the rising costs or power to home and work is solar power. A PV system provides both clean energy for 30 years or more but hedges against future rate hikes during its lifecycle. 
 

   

Sept 14-18: Solar Outpaces Dow, NASDAQ Again

Strong week all around; Dow approaches 10,000

The 20 Solar Stocks Index (20SSI) gained a sparkling 8% this week compared to the Dow's and NASDAQ's 2.2 and 2.5% gains respectively. It is usually a blah month for trading but all three indexes gained for the second straight week.

MarketPlace reported consumer stocks, including Procter & Gamble, Sara Lee and Home Depot, showed lead the rally that pushed the Dow up nearly 214 points. The NASDAQ gained nearly 52 points, the eighth week in the last ten to rise.

The 20SSI gained over 33 points for the week with First Solar, JA Solar and SunPower leading the pack. All but four stocks went up in what could be the beginning of a consistent rise for solar installations. Here in California news of steep rate hikes next year by Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric certainly helps the industry without the need for more state or federal incentives. Even conservative companies are looking at renewable energy because the low cost of panels and ever-increasing electricity costs make solar or wind power imperative. Solar trackers are coming more into play as more incentives are performance based and they help to eke out more power as the panels follow the sun's path.

China is committing to 20% of its power demand to come from solar and wind by 2020. As authoritarian governments go, implementation of solar projects are much quicker to be built than in most Western (democratic) countries with their layers of government and compliance. China's commitment could drive up the cost of panels worldwide as their multi-megawatt PV projects devour existing panel supplies. This is no far out possibility. It is said the cost of concrete, steel and copper was sky-high because of the copious amounts of these materials used to complete the Beijing Olympics.


The 20 Solar Stocks Index Week of September 14-18, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	9605.41	9820.20	+214.79	+2.236%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	2080.90	2132.86	+51.96	+2.496	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.1701	1.23	+.0599	+5.119	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	5.01	5.50	+.49	+9.780	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	13.51	13.03	-.48	-3.684	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	16.58	17.62	+1.04	+6.272	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	13.40	13.53	+.13	+.9701	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.1750	.1800	+.0050	+2.857	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	1.94	1.88	-.06	-3.191	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	136.75	156.15	+19.40	+14.18	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.35	5.86	+.51	+9.532	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	3.90	4.60	+.70	+17.95	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	88.05	89.37	+1.32	+1.499	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	9.75	9.39	-.36	-3.833	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	17.21	18.90	+1.69	+9.819	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	5.86	6.00	+.14	+2.389	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	1.90	1.90	NC	NC	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	5.94	6.43	+.49	+8.249	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	29.15	33.09	+3.94	+13.51	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	15.97	16.96	+.99	+6.199	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	29.07	31.45	+2.38	+8.187	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	12.98	14.05	+1.07	+8.243	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 413.67	Current 447.12	Change +33.45/+8%	Avg Stock +5.7%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** The Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.
NOTE: All above stocks have market capitization of $100M+ except Akeena Solar, Amtel Systems
and Entech Solar. This listing is strictly informational and implies neither endorsement or disapproval
of any stock listed. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SEPA Names Top 10 Solar Utilities in U.S.

CA utilities rank 1, 2, 3 and 9

The Solar Electric Power Association (SEPA) released its second annual "Top Ten Utility Solar Integration Rankings" based on data through 2008. U.S. utilities were ranked according to installed solar capacity in categories including customer-side of the meter (net metering); utility-side of the meter; solar capacity per customer and more.

As expected, California held four of the top 10 utilities for total megawatts of solar installed in 2008, including the top three spots. Pacific Gas & Electric (Central to Northern CA) ranked first with 84.9MW installed in 2008 followed by Southern California Edison (LA to AZ border) at 32.4MW installed and San Diego Gas & Electric was third with 16MW installed. Sacramento Municipal Utility District ranked ninth with 2.9MW installed. Rounding out the top 10 in order were utilities from Colorado (14.2MW), New Jersey (5.5MW), Arizona (3.56MW), Hawaii (3.54MW), Oregon (3.538MW), New York (2.5MW).

Total cumulative solar capacity through 2008 showed five California utilities in the top ten. In order these were Southern California Edison with 441.4MWac total capacity installed; Pacific Gas & Electric, 229.5MW; Nevada Energy, 7.9MW; San Diego Gas & Electric, 49.3MW; Public Service Co. of Colorado (Xcell Energy), 28.5MW; LA Dept. of Water & Power, 13.6MW; Public Service Electric & Gas Co. of New Jersey, 13.2MW; Arizona Public Service Co., 10.6MW; Sacramento Municipal Utility Dist., 10.2MW; and Long Island Power Authority of New York, 7.7MW installed.

To download the complete report, go to: http://www.solarelectricpower.org/docs/SEPA%20Utility%20Solar%20Integration%20Rankings-2008.Public%20release.pdf

CA Home Solar Sales 2009: Early Results

John Supp, program manager of the CA Solar Initiative at the California Center for Sustainable Energy (CCSE), said 71 residential solar rebate applications have been processed thus far this month by SDG&E customers with another 12 apps just hitting his desk. Nearly twice as many reserved rebates in 2008 compared to 2007. Despite the weak economy, Supp said this is a good start compared to a year ago and is a likely reflection of the improved federal tax credit.

"A lot of buyers are purchasing 5kWDC systems so the 30% tax credit means $9000 instead of the $2000 maximum allowed [from 2006 through 2008]," said Supp. He went on to say it appears installed costs have dropped from December to this month. Average installed cost last month in San Diego was $8.40/WDC; this month it's about $7.98/WDC installed but he adds this if from a relively small sampling. This compares to $8.52/W in the PG&E territory (Santa Barbara to San Francisco) and $9.05/W in the SoCal Edison area (Central CA).

Has there been a major drop in panel costs as was widely anticipated late last year?

"There's been a lag in the market and supply to see much noticeable change in panel prices. In fact, statewide installed prices are up from the last six months of '08," Supp remarked. Average installed costs for home PV systems from July-December averaged $8.17/WDC and this month it's up to $8.70 statewide with the limited data available. Supp surmises the impact of the 30% solar tax credit [with the CSI rebate], which defrays so much more of the cost for the end user, could be the culprit. Cost data has fluctuated differently over the years in each utility territory and there is the obvious answer. Still, it's much too early to say if this will be a continuing trend.

In 2007, when the CA Solar Initiative (Million Solar Roofs) went into effect, 560 rebate applications were filed with CCSE by SDG&E customers with only 25 were cancellations (4.46%). Last year 1074 applications were processed with just 11 cancelling (1%).

"The fact so many went solar last year is exciting for the industry in that the rebate was reducing from the initial $2.50 per watt and the tax credit was just $2000," said Supp. "It seems people are realizing that while incentives are depleting, solar's value keeps rising."