Showing posts with label panel oversupply. Show all posts
Showing posts with label panel oversupply. Show all posts

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Now LDK Solar Defaults


On the heels of Suntech's bankruptcy last month, LDK Solar Company Ltd. (Xinyu City, China) failed to make  full payments of $23.8 million-worth of 4.75% convertible notes due this year.

LDK was able to reach a private agreement on some cash payments and payment postponement with two other holders of $16.6M in notes. The company is seeking settlement with owners of the balance of convertible notes.

LDK just released fourth quarter 2012 results showing a 54% year-over-year collapse to $136M, an operating loss of $409M with a net loss of $515M. Obviously, it was a bad quarter but one of seven recent quarters with heavy losses. PV cells and panels along with silicon wafers saw drops in sales. Still, LDK's CEO Xinghue Tong is confident financial obligations can be met.

"Our business continued to be affected by the significant challenges that remained pervasive throughout the solar industry," Tong said in a statement this week. "Our fourth quarter results reflect the industry-wide overcapacity and resulting pressure to ASP's [average selling prices] and margins."

Symptoms of the Fall:  Commentary


Chinese PV manufacturers are heavily responsible for the bottom dropping out of panel pricing worldwide. The 2008 US financial collapse had the Chinese dumping panels here in the US forcing stateside and foreign makers to sink or swim to this day.

As I see it, under the Chinese financial model--a blend of communism and pragmatic capitalism--business leaders were used to heavy government with less concern for profit in a free market. Conversely, self-funded, profit-minded competitors around the world must pay more attention to supply and demand. Spoiled, if you will, by the old way things were done, Chinese companies like LDK now had international investors to pay back. It's a lesson the Chinese had to learn sooner or later.

Solar margins continue tumbling

With solar margins continuously shrinking, one might think diversified corporations with solar subsidiaries are better capable and more determined to make solar profitable. But German companies Schott, Schuco and Bosch with solid core businesses scaled back or even ceased their solar operations rather than continue paying for a dying horse, so to speak.

Still, solar is growing worldwide. Cheap panel prices are great for individual and commercial consumers, of course. Dedicated solar manufacturers have found other ways to keep afloat. Beside their widely-acclaimed panels, Sunpower's leasing program has been a huge boost to the company's presence in the US. Sunpower is also generating revenue for inverters, monitoring and racking. Just as Ford started making more than just the Model T, Sunpower's moxie could prove the way of things to come.



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Saturday, August 29, 2009

Aug 24-28: Dow, NASDAQ Inch Up; 8 Solar Stocks Gain


Usual late-summer vacations mean trading lull

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ gained about .4% in light trading for the week. The 20SSI was down just 1.27 to finish at 384.62 a .33% decline from the previous week.

Economists are predicting 250,000 jobs lost in August, slightly up from July's 247,000. The Labor Department released its report late Friday which, along with data from payroll processor ADP, could strongly influence trading on Monday.

Eight of the 20 solar stocks in this index finished up: Entech, First Solar, Kyocera, LDK Solar, Renesola, Satcon, Suntech and Trina Solar. None of the gains exceeded 6%--a far cry from the boom period from March through June. Solar inventories are still climbing as the economy remains weak and, although credit is loosening, it's not loose enough to allow many planned projects to get underway. On the other hand, those with cash or financing in place, solar panels, inverters, trackers and racking have never been cheaper. For one who experiencing the shortage of both silicon cells and panels in 2004-05, it is truly amazing the deals that can be made on even better equipment today. Coming electricity rate hikes--steep and soon--could force the issue for power-needy consumers small and large.

20 Solar Stocks Index Week of August 24-28, 2009

Monday Open Friday Close Up/Down % Change Close 1/5/09* Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA 9505.96 9544.2 +38.24 +.4022% 8952.89 6626.95
NASDAQ 2020.90 2028.77 +7.87 +.3894 1628.03 1293.85






Akeena Solar AKNS 1.17 1.09 -.08 -7.339 2.28 .61
Amtel Systems ASYS 5.05 5.03 -.02 -.3976 4.00 2.73
Applied Materials AMAT 13.74 13.27 -.47 -3.541 10.67 8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ 15.98 15.19 -.79 -5.200 7.00 3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER 12.36 11.92 -.44 -3.691 29.33 17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB .1750 18.00 +.005 +2.857 .28 .23
Evergreen Solar ESLR 1.89 1.65 -.24 -14.54 3.60 1.03
First Solar FSLR 121.54 124.21 +2.67 +2.196 157.80 108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR 5.38 5.27 -.11 -2.087 4.00 4.02
JA Solar JASO 3.79 3.62 -.17 -4.696 5.09 1.91
Kyocera KYO 79.85 81.44 +1.59 +1.991 71.87 54.21
LDK Solar LDK 8.94 9.24 +.30 +3.355 14.84 4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR 17.00 16.55 -.45 -2.719 15.76 13.68
Renesola SOL 5.53 5.73 +.20 +3.616 5.15 2.1201
Satcon SATC 1.96 2.07 +.11 +3.157 1.60 1.23
SolarFun SOLF 5.51 5.30 -.21 -3.962 6.12 2.30
SunPower SPWRA 26.25 26.14 -.11 -.4208 45.13 23.39
SunTech STP 15.30 18.00 -.25 +1.661 13.55 5.34
Trina Solar TSL 25.93 27.70 +1.77 +6.826 10.09 7.23
Yingli YGE 11.07 11.02 -.05 -.4537 7.25 3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative: Previous 385.89 Current 384.62 Change -1.27/-.33% Avg Stock -.6797% 1/05/09* 415.41 3/06/09** 266.01
* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.


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Friday, August 14, 2009

Aug 10-14: Dow Off; NASDAQ, Solar Also Tumble


Consumer confidence dipping

The DJIA's four-week run of gains ended this week down 49 points from last Friday. NASDAQ was also down--about 15 points this week but drops for both major indexes amounted to less than 1%. All but two in the 20SSI went down for a generally sour week throughout Wall Street. Fortunately, it's August and trading is relatively light.

MarketWatch reports that consumer confidence has fallen based on the Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment which fell to 63.2 this month from 66 in July. By contrast, analyst's consensus predicted a rise to 68.5.

Consumers companies are feeling the pinch. Nordstrom lead the sector's declines by falling 1.89 to 27.87 after its Q209 profit fell 27%. Consumer sentiment also hurt some commodities including oil entities. Certain banks, like Bank of America, helped to offset overall declines with some modest gains.

As for solar stocks, Chris Morrison, energy writer at bnet.com, reported yesterday that large solar panel inventories are taking a toll on the solar industry. Oversupply hit LDK Solar hard last quarter by taking a $217 million loss for its unsold solar wafer stock. Of that amount, $175.8 million was in inventory write-downs, meaning LDK was forced to reduce on-paper value of unsold wafers to reflect current market pricing. JA Solar, also a solar cell maker, said its inventories rose 18%, a common condition of silicon wafer and solar panel manufacturers. Still, most solar companies, Morrison reports, seem to believe the industry will be over the hump in 2010 or early 2011.

iSupply, an electronics research firm, predicted oversupply lasting into 2012; that half of all panels now being made are going into inventory. Such a glut of panels has an adverse effect on high-concentration photovoltaics makers (HCPV) as their modules are based on cutting cost-per-watt pricing by using Fresnel lenses (mostly) to maximize output of much less silicon per module. With high-grade silicon wafers in abundance and prices falling, HCPV technology becomes less important.

20 Solar Stocks Index Week of August 10-14, 2009

Monday Open Friday Close Up/Down % Change Close 1/5/09* Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA 9370.07 9321.40 -48.67 -.5221% 8952.89 6626.95
NASDAQ 2000.25 1985.52 -14.73 -.7418 1628.03 1293.85






Akeena Solar AKNS 1.26 1.21 -.05 -4.132 2.28 .61
Amtel Systems ASYS 5.63 4.91 -.72 -14.66 4.00 2.73
Applied Materials AMAT 13.52 13.55 +.02 +.2219 10.67 8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ 18.40 16.54 -1.86 -11.24 7.00 3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER 13.58 13.35 -.23 -1.722 29.33 17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB .2230 .2010 -.022 -10.95 .28 .23
Evergreen Solar ESLR 2.06 2.00 -.06 -3.000 3.60 1.03
First Solar FSLR 146.47 141.78 -4.69 -3.079 157.80 108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR 6.50 5.50 -1.00 -18.18 4.00 4.02
JA Solar JASO 5.20 4.17 -1.03 -24.70 5.09 1.91
Kyocera KYO 80.72 81.45 +.73 +.0090 71.87 54.21
LDK Solar LDK 11.64 9.22 -2.42 -26.24 14.84 4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR 17.46 16.82 -.64 -3.804 15.76 13.68
Renesola SOL 5.67 5.38 -.29 -5.390 5.15 2.1201
Satcon SATC 2.02 1.90 -.12 -6.315 1.60 1.23
SolarFun SOLF 7.84 6.70 -1.14 -17.01 6.12 2.30
SunPower SPWRA 30.69 27.65 -3.04 -10.99 45.13 23.39
SunTech STP 18.22 17.64 -.58 -3.288 13.55 5.34
Trina Solar TSL 28.58 28.31 -.27 -.9537 10.09 7.23
Yingli YGE 13.40 12.43 -.97 -7.803 7.25 3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative: Previous 429.08 Current 410.71 Change -18.38/-4.4% Avg Stock -8.66% 1/05/09* 415.41 3/06/09** 266.01
* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Consensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.


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