June 22-26: DJIA Down, NASDAQ Up, Solar Slips Again

Is the new Bull Market over?

The Dow was down a second straight week finishing off 101 points at 8438.39, 1.2% down from last week. However, with just two trading days left in the second quarter, the index is up nearly 830 points, 11% above Q1. The NASDAQ was barely up this week by 10.75 or +.06%. But the tech stock index is up 20% from Q1 (if prices hold through Tuesday) which would be the highest quarterly gain is six years. The 20 Solar Stocks Index dropped nearly 16 points or -3.7% from last week. Still, the 20SSI is up 61 points or 17% from its March 27 close.

On Monday the World Bank projected an extended recession worldwide which drove down many stock prices until today. Solar was no exception as only six of the 20 stocks in this index finished the week ahead. Satcon Technology was the biggest gainer at 20% up, possibly from bringing their new Prism inverter to market. This one-megawatt, medium voltage inverter is fully customizable and is intended to increase the ease and speed of a typical utility scale PV installation.

Does the new Bull Market that began March 9 appear to be over? Maybe judging quarter to quarter is a better barometer. Q3 starts Wednesday. Many solar jobs are hinging on the federal 30% solar grant (taken in instead of the 30% tax credit) but the grant application has not been completed as yet. Since there already exists a tax credit form that must be completed to take the credit, one would think a slight variation of this form could constitute a grant app...

Week of June 22-26, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	8539.73	8438.39	-101.34	-1.201%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	1827.47	1838.22	+10.75	+.5882	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.39	1.29	-.10	-7.752	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	5.46	4.72	-.74	-15.67	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	10.98	10.91	-.07	-.6416	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	13.05	12.41	-.64	-5.157	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	15.81	14.78	-1.03	-6.969	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.1950	.1850	+.01	-5.405	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.31	2.35	+.04	+1.732	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	173.46	160.72	-12.74	-7.927	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	5.80	5.73	-.07	-1.221	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	4.98	4.85	-.13	-2.680	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	75.20	77.25	+2.05	-2.726	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	11.01	11.30	+.29	+2.634	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	19.14	17.94	-1.20	-6.689	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	6.09	5.86	-.23	-3.925	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	1.80	2.16	+.36	+20.00	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	6.65	6.66	+.01	+.1504	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	28.49	26.81	-1.68	-6.266	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	18.04	18.01	-.03	-.1665	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	22.95	23.53	+.58	+2.527	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	13.39	13.17	-.22	-1.670	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 436.20	Current 420.64	Change -15.56/-3.7%	Avg Stock -2.118%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

June 15-19: Dow, NASDAQ Down; Solar Off 6.5%

Overall bad week finishes strong however

The DJIA dropped 260 points or 3% for the week; the NASDAQ was off 31 points or 1.7%. The solar index dropped 28 points, a 6.5% thumping. However, Friday's trading finished rather strong; the Dow was down just 15 points, the NASDAQ up 20 and 15 of the 20 Solar Stocks Index ended up higher than yesterday.

Still the week was a bear. The Wall Street Journal placed much of the decline on financial stock on concern of White House plans to overhaul financial regulation. Energy stocks took a hit supposedly because oil fell $1.82 to $69.55 a barrel, still leashing alternative energy to the
rise and fall of black gold. When it comes to producing electricity, oil is rarely used because of its cost. Oil obviously plays the major role in transportation energy but not for electricity. So solar (or wind) should be unaffected by the price of crude. Such uninformed, knee-jerk reactions by solar/wind investors (individual and institutional) unnecessarily hurt alternative energy stocks by tying their worth to the fluctuations of Big Oil. It does not compute.

Still, the week was the worst since the new bull market begain March 9, some 15 weeks ago. We hope it was just an aberration.

Week of June 15-19, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	8799.26	8539.73	-259.53	-3.039%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	1858.80	1827.47	-31.33	-1.714	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.58	1.39	-.19	-13.67	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	5.71	5.46	-.25	-2.276	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	11.23	10.98	-.25	-2.276	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	14.62	13.05	-1.57	-12.03	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	17.82	15.81	-2.01	-14.89	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.2021	.1950	+.0071	-3.641	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	2.62	2.31	-.31	-13.42	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	183.80	173.46	-10.34	-5.961	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	6.89	5.80	-1.09	-18.79	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	5.67	4.98	-.69	-13.85	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	76.94	75.20	-1.74	-2.313	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	12.50	11.01	-1.49	-13.53	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	20.16	19.14	-1.02	-5.329	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	6.59	6.09	-.50	-8.210	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	1.76	1.80	+.04	+2.272	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	7.72	6.65	-1.07	-16.09	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	31.90	28.49	-3.41	-11.97	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	18.17	18.04	-.13	-.7206	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	24.86	22.95	-1.91	-8.322	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	13.76	13.39	-.37	-2.763	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 464.50	Current 436.20	Change -28.3/-6.48%	Avg Stock -8.642%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

CA Rebate Process Changes July 1

Update: Residential rebate in SDG&E region triggered down June 17

Katrina Perez, non-residential program manager at the CA Center for Sustainable Energy (CCSE), emailed the changes to the rebate process for the CA Solar Initiative beginning July 1.

New Module List: There will be a revised eligible solar panels list following Senate Bill 1 guidelines. The list will be virtually the same as the New Solar Homes Program list.

New Documentation Requirements:

Residential

§ Signed Residential Energy Efficiency Disclosure Form
§ Signed Field Verification Certification Form

Non-Residential

§ Signed Non-Residential Energy Efficiency Disclosure Form
§ Signed Non-Residential Energy Efficiency Commitment Agreement (if applicable)
§ Signed Field Verification Certification Form
§ Copy of Retro-commissioning Report (if applicable)

Non-Residential New Construction

§ Proof of at least 15% above Title 24 Standards
§ Building Site Plan
§ Copy of New Construction Building Permit

The new documents will be released shortly and posted on our website: www.energycenter.org . For now, see the attached document for a more detailed description of the requirements

On the brighter side, PG&E filed a letter on behalf of all CSI program administrators that would, upon CPUC approval:

* Remove the requirement of customer copy of bill
* Remove original signature requirements
* Remove project cost breakdown worksheet
* Clarify warranty requirements
* Extend commercial applications to 18 months


Rebate drops to $1.55 in SDG&E region

After announcing Monday the Step 4 allotment was nearly exhausted, Matt Messina of CCSE announced Wednesday that the allotment was met. So, the rebate goes from $1.90/Wac (26 cents, if production-based incentive) to $1.55 (22 cents, PBI). All rebate applications will now assume the new rates.

June 8-12: Dow, NASDAQ Squeak Up; Solar Beats 'Em

Akeena Solar, Evergreen and LDK biggest gainers

Although the DJIA gained only .04% for the week it logged the biggest 14-week gain since 1975. The NASDAQ index was up only .005% but is now 14% above its January 5 close and 44% higher than its woeful 1293.85 close on March 6. The 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI) is up 12% and 75% respectively for the same dates.

Akeena Solar (AKNS) was over 27% up from last week in near-record trading. Akeena was given the 2009 Industry Innovator Award June 8 from Solar Energy Industries Assn. Akeena's Andalay AC system is the industry's first plug-and-play PV system for homeowners and small businesses.

Evergreen Solar (ESLR), up nearly 38% this week, makes a proprietary String Ribbon technology that grows thin strips of multi-crystalline silicon which are then cut into wafers. The method makes wafers cheaper producing higher margins. With crude oil prices climbing again, this advanced chip-making process bodes well for Evergreen.

LDK Solar (LDK), a major Chinese silicon wafer manufacturer, gained over 34% possibly on the increasing seriousness of the Chinese government in solar power. This, added to crude prices rising and lending/financing problems easing points to silicon wafer manufacturing as key to meeting the potential burgeoning demand.

Week of June8-12, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	8763.13	8799.26	+33.13	+.0412%	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	1849.42	1858.80	+9.38	+.0507	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.24	1.58	+.34	+27.41	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	5.07	5.71	+.64	+12.62	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	10.98	11.23	+.25	+2.276	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	15.70	14.62	-1.08	-7.37	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	17.16	17.82	+.66	+3.846	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.19	.2021	+.0121	+6.368	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	1.90	2.62	+.72	+37.89	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	182.10	183.80	+1.70	+.0093	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	6.30	6.89	+.59	+9.360	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	5.13	5.67	+.54	+10.52	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	76.89	76.94	+.05	+.0065	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	9.31	12.50	+3.19	+34.26	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	19.79	20.16	+.37	+.0186	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	6.21	6.59	+.38	+6.119	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	2.25	1.76	-.49	-27.84	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	8.14	7.72	-.42	-5.440	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	31.57	31.90	+.33	+.0104	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	17.11	18.17	+1.06	+6.195	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	27.35	24.86	-2.49	-9.613	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	14.91	13.76	-1.15	-8.357	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 459.30	Current 464.50	Change +5.2/+1.1%	Avg Stock +5.05%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.

Cap and Trade: The Next Market Meltdown?

Greenhouse gases to greenback boom...

An article in the current Mother Jones sheds light on a possible new financial tempest. It reports that if the Waxman-Markey climate bill becomes law, last year's financial disaster from credit default swaps and subprime mortgages could be replaced with carbon default swaps and subprime offsets. The law would create a new market for carbon derivatives which was never the intent and, worse yet, never even thought of. This market will be huge ($2 trillion estimated), very complex and extremely hard to monitor. Without clear rules set in Washington, American-style cap and trade will be vulnerable to speculation and manipulation by many of the same financial big guns who brought us the market meltdown last fall.

Under cap and trade, the government issues permits allowing companies to emit a set amount of greenhouse gases. Companies that emit more than their limit can buy allowances from the companies producing less than their limit. Furthermore, there are carbon offsets which allow over-emitting companies to invest in an emissions-cutting project somewhere else, such as in developing countries. Examples would be paying Brazilian villagers not to cut down trees (which absorb CO2) or Filipino farmers to cap methane from pig waste.

For more on this timely, controversial issue, read "Could Cap and Trade Cause Another Market Meltdown?", by Rachel Morris in Mother Jones: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2009/06/could-cap-and-trade-cause-another-market-meltdown?page=1

June 1-5: Dow Up 3%; NASDAQ, Solar Gain, Too

Market continues bullish

Last Friday ended the 13th week of the new bull market which began March 9 and virtually all indexes are still running strong. The Dow gained nearly 263 points, over 3% above last week's close. The NASDAQ was up 75 points, just over 4%. The 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI) had mixed trading, gaining nearly five points or 1.01%. Still, average percentage rise for solar stocks was 5.13%.

First Solar (FSLR), an industry superstar the passed three years, dropped for a second straight week ending at 182.10. The thin-film PV manufacturer is rumored to have lost some of its project backlogs to standard silicon panels. Also, certain stock analysts believe First Solar is overvalued.

Renesola (SOL) shot up 46% this week to 6.21. Word's getting around about the silicon wafer maker getting into module manufacturing. After acquiring a small Chinese cell and panel maker, SOL targets 1GW capacity in three years selling at $1/watt or less. Right now, typical wholesale panel prices are $2.50-$3.10/watt.

Canadian Solar (CSIQ) stepped packed on 2.47 a share to 15.70, close 17% up for the week. In fact, besides Renesola and Canadian Solar, all other Chinese solar stocks were up: JA Solar (JASO), LDK Solar (LDK), Solarfun (SOLF), Suntech (STP), Trina Solar (TSL), and Yingli (YGE).

Modified Format: Composite index price of the 20SSI was added for the previous and current weeks. Also added were composite prices for the opening week of this index (1/05/09) and the concensus beginning of the current bull market starting week of 3/09/09. MarketBrowser, the free stock-watching software, is used to follow the stocks in this index. This wonderful tool is available at www.marketbrowser.com.

Week of June1-5, 2009

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Up/Down	% Change	Close 1/5/09*	Close 3/6/09**
Dow Jones DJIA	8500.33	8763.13	+262.80	+3.092	8952.89	6626.95
NASDAQ	1774.33	1849.42	+75.09	+4.232	1628.03	1293.85
Akeena Solar AKNS	1.20	1.24	+.04	+3.333	2.28	.61
Amtel Systems ASYS	4.55	5.07	+.52	+11.43	4.00	2.73
Applied Materials AMAT	11.26	10.98	-.28	-2.550	10.67	8.70
Canadian Solar CSIQ	13.23	15.70	+2.47	+18.67	7.00	3.0601
ECD (UniSolar) ENER	17.21	17.16	-.05	-.2913	29.33	17.45
Entech Solar ENSL.OB	.19	.19	NC	NC	.28	.23
Evergreen Solar ESLR	1.86	1.90	+..04	+2.150	3.60	1.03
First Solar FSLR	190.29	182.10	-8.19	-4.497	157.80	108.49
GT Solar Int. SOLR	6.42	6.30	-.12	-1.904	4.00	4.02
JA Solar JASO	4.23	5.13	+.90	+21.27	5.09	1.91
Kyocera KYO	78.53	76.89	-1.64	-2.132	71.87	54.21
LDK Solar LDK	9.12	9.31	+.19	+2.083	14.84	4.40
MEMC Elect. WFR	19.29	19.79	+.50	+2.592	15.76	13.68
Renesola SOL	4.24	6.21	+1.97	+46.46	5.15	2.1201
Satcon SATC	2.37	2.25	-.12	-5.333	1.60	1.23
SolarFun SOLF	7.48	8.14	+.66	+8.823	6.12	2.30
SunPower SPWRA	29.03	31.57	+2.54	+8.749	45.13	23.39
SunTech STP	16.34	17.11	+.77	+4.712	13.55	5.34
Trina Solar TSL	24.78	27.35	+2.57	+10.37	10.09	7.23
Yingli YGE	12.82	14.91	+2.09	+16.30	7.25	3.888
20SSI Weekly Cumulative:	Previous 454.44	Current 459.30	Change +4.86/+1.1%	Avg Stock +5.133%	1/05/09* 415.41	3/06/09** 266.01

* The starting date of the 20 Solar Stock Index (20SSI).
** NOTE: Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.