Solar Pro Sees Good Year for Buyers

Anyone who has made a living in solar power over 30 years has had to have another kind of power of his own: stay power. After all, it's only been since 1996 that solar photovoltaics (PV) have been a true growth industry averaging 25% growth annually. Before that Wall Street and Main Street lumped solar professionals together with treehuggers and hemp growers by mainstream America.

Since 1978 Larry Slominski, of the San Diego suburb of Ramona, has been one of those solar pioneers with equal parts passion, know-how and vision. His success stems from an engineering background; a stint with the Peace Corps in Micronesia working on "off-grid" village solar systems; National Energy Planner for the Federated States of Micronesia; public utility regulator in Massachusetts; and over 20 years working for solar module manufacturers and system integrators. Today he is an independent solar energy consultant specializing in utility-scale projects and large airport solar applications.

Slominski sees a good year for solar power in 2009.

"The field looks really bright if you're a buyer. It's a complete 180 degree shift from a year or year and a half ago when you couldn't get modules," he said referring to the dearth of silicon cell manufacturing that could not keep up with the demand for solar panels. Now there appears to be an oversupply of silicon and panel prices are dropping, if only for awhile.

Slominski also admits dropping oil prices, although not directly related to PV, have had a softening effect on the urgency to invest in alternative energy. However, the cost of energy worldwide, the polluting effects of conventional energy production, and the related global warming issue still makes solar a solid, long-term solution.

What can we look for within the PV industry?

"Crystalline (panels) has been the heavyweight in the industry for a long time. But the big charge is coming from thin-film on one side and concentrated solar on the other in trying to reduce the cost of solar power. You could see this beginning to happen three to five years ago and these two competing technologies will reduce the use of crystalline panels significantly.

"Concentrated solar (CPV), in its several forms, is just now proving to be on par in cost with conventionally-produced electricity. I think concentrated solar is set to make a good run as witnessed by the recent 70 megawatt installation in Nevada. We're going to see CPV becoming a major producer of power on a utility scale," Slominski foresees.

Leading up to the elections last year, Slominski said all of the candidates spoke to renewable energy so that's a good sign that that issue has gone mainstream. He sees a public and private partnerships for renewable energy advancement.

"As for coal, it's going to be hard not to see that it's an old and outdated way to produce electricity. Coal will continue to be a major component of energy production for the next fifty years but it will continue to get pressure related to the greenhouse gas emissions and gross pollution of the air where plants are located. Clean energy technologies being developed now and over the next generation will simply replace coal, Slominski concluded.

Perlin: 'Clean Coal is like Perfumed Garbage'

An Exclusive Interview

John Perlin, noteworthy author of From Space to Earth: The Story of Solar Electricity, was in San Diego last week for a meeting commemorating the fiftieth anniversary of the first practical use of photovoltaics by Bell Laboratories (see "Two Must-Have Solar Books" posted Sept. 20). This blogger was able to interview him over dinner on Thursday.

Asked about the upcoming Obama Administration in relation to renewable energy Perlin had this to say:

"Obama stressed renewable energy over 'drill, baby, drill.' The fact that he so craftily used the Internet to win the election shows he embraces new technology. McCain evidently doesn't even use a computer."

Perlin , who resides in Santa Barbara, is wary however of Obama's interest in "clean coal" and nuclear power expressed during the campaign.

"Clean coal is like perfumed garbage," he said. "There has not been any sizable sequestration of CO2 from coal-burning power plants." Besides, he says, CO2 leakage is likely from natural venting of the Earth's crust as with volcanoes or tectonic plate shifts. Then there is nuclear power.

"I see three problems with nuclear power. First, we haven't learned from our experiences with accidents; the Chernobyl and Three Mile Island incidents were strong warnings. Secondly, the very presence of nuclear plants gives terrorists the nuclear threat (if they forcibly take one over) without even having to invest in it. And finally, nuclear waste--and there's a lot of it--can be used to make dirty bombs by either terrorist cells or rogue governments.

"Furthermore, nuclear power requires copious amounts of water for making steam and for cooling spent rods. Solar power uses no water and this is important as the world's supply of fresh water sources is drying up," explained Perlin.

He sees two types of solar power: smart and stupid.

Smart solar he sees as incorporating energy efficiency in all new architecture, including passive and active solar methods.

"Housing placement should be planned so it can act as both a solar collector and deflector," Perlin continues. This is done with proper window placement with low-E panes; sufficient eaves and other shading on the south and west sides; and light-colored roofs for less heat retention, among other low-tech options like improved insulation.

"Stupid solar is not planning for it in the architecture and then adding a PV system to a bad design, sort of as an afterthought," Perlin concluded. He thinks feed-in tariffs for solar power would accelerate growth of the industry in the U.S. as it has already in Europe and that many of the existing rules of solar installations are too strict, bordering on obstructive.