Still, a remarkable comeback for stocks
It appears the high optimism of last week that Wall Street would end 2009 bullish, the bears entered their dens. The Dow was off 92 points from last week, a .88% drop. NASDAQ lost nearly 17, a .73% slip. The 20 Solar Stocks Index dropped 2.24 points, about a half percent since last Friday.
2010, says a MarketWatch report, could be rough on investors as recovery/stimulus money gets used up and equities will need to depend on (heaven forbid!) earnings growth.
"In previous cyclical profit rebounds, consumer discretionary companies, such as retailers, and financial services led the way. But these sectors face a tough year ahead as consumers remain mired in debt and banks tackle lingering loan losses from the financial crisis," said MarketWatch's Alistair Barr.
Still, Wall Street experienced a huge comeback from a year ago and especially since March 9, when stocks hit Grand Canyon depths then the new Bull Market began (see data below). Since Jan 5, 2009 when the Dow closed at 8953 it has gained 1475 points or about 16.5% up. The NASDAQ gained 641 points in the same period, a 39% surge. The 20SSI gained nearly 33 points, an 8% gain for the year.
Why was solar's gain so puny compared to the major markets? Speaking from sales experience in solar, many potential customers who wanted to go solar had problems getting financing, even with impeccable credit. Credit loosened a little in the last two quarters but many projects were simply postponed indefinitely. The irony is solar panel prices dropped markedly due to a worldwide glut of high-grade silicon and oversupply of panels not being bought.
Other reasons for a soft solar rebound is that solar power has been irrationally tied to the cost of oil, although oil is used very rarely to produce electricity. Still, when oil prices are down, the collective American wisdom--or lack thereof--prefers the status quo of fossil fuel usage rather than renewable energy sources for power. Also, when push comes to shove, Americans still don't look at solar or any other renewable source as absolutely necessary, anyway. Coal-fired power plants still supply about 64% of America's electricity and it's still relatively cheap in most parts of the country.
Americans have much less equity in their homes, so the fat lines of credit which were so readily available just a few years ago, has mostly dried up. With discretionary income tight, solar is a rather low priority. Finally--and this may be good--Americans are trying to get out of debt; paying off credit cards appears a higher priority than adding a solar power plant to the house.
Where does solar stand in 2010? Americans are pragmatic and purchasing solar PV systems for home or business is tied to the cost of electricity. In California, electricity costs keep going up despite the economy. During lean times controlling overhead can be the linchpin to profitability. Through deft financing or power purchase agreements, solar power can get operating budgets in line rather quickly. Once payback on a system is met, reliable, FREE electricity is extra sweet.
20 Solar Stocks Index Week of Dec 28-31, 2009
| Monday Open | Friday Close | Up/Down | % Change | Close 1/5/09* | Close 3/6/09** | |
| Dow Jones DJIA | 10520.10 | 10428.05 | -92.05 | -.8827% | 8952.89 | 6626.95 |
| NASDAQ | 2285.69 | 2269.15 | -16.54 | -.7289 | 1628.03 | 1293.85 |
| Akeena Solar AKNS | 1.3499 | 1.24 | -.1099 | -8.863 | 2.28 | .61 |
| Amtel Systems ASYS | 11.15 | 11.07 | -.07 | -.7226 | 4.00 | 2.73 |
| Applied Materials AMAT | 14.00 | 13.94 | -.06 | -.4304 | 10.67 | 8.70 |
| Canadian Solar CSIQ | 29.40 | 28.82 | -.18 | -2.012 | 7.00 | 3.0601 |
| ECD (UniSolar) ENER | 10.52 | 10.57 | +.05 | +.4752 | 29.33 | 17.45 |
| Entech Solar ENSL.OB | .12 | .10 | -.02 | -20.00 | .28 | .23 |
| Evergreen Solar ESLR | 1.60 | 1.51 | -.09 | -5.960 | 3.60 | 1.03 |
| First Solar FSLR | 133.80 | 135.40 | +1.60 | +11.95 | 157.80 | 108.49 |
| GT Solar Int. SOLR | 5.67 | 5.56 | -.11 | -1.978 | 4.00 | 4.02 |
| JA Solar JASO | 6.05 | 5.70 | -.35 | -6.140 | 5.09 | 1.91 |
| Kyocera KYO | 89.70 | 88.31 | -1.39 | -1.574 | 71.87 | 54.21 |
| LDK Solar LDK | 7.00 | 7.01 | +.01 | +.1428 | 14.84 | 4.40 |
| MEMC Elect. WFR | 12.51 | 13.62 | +1.11 | +8.873 | 15.76 | 13.68 |
| Renesola SOL | 5.12 | 4.76 | -.36 | -7.563 | 5.15 | 2.1201 |
| Satcon SATC | 2.62 | 2.82 | +.20 | +7.633 | 1.60 | 1.23 |
| SolarFun SOLF | 7.60 | 7.63 | +.03 | +.3947 | 6.12 | 2.30 |
| SunPower SPWRA | 24.31 | 23.68 | -.63 | -2.660 | 45.13 | 23.39 |
| SunTech STP | 16.71 | 16.63 | -.08 | -.4810 | 13.55 | 5.34 |
| Trina Solar TSL | 54.85 | 53.97 | -.88 | -1.630 | 10.09 | 7.23 |
| Yingli YGE | 16.21 | 15.81 | -.40 | -2.530 | 7.25 | 3.888 |
| 20SSI Weekly Cumulative: | Previous 450.39 | Current 448.15 | Change -2.24/-.4998% | Avg Stock -2.04% | 1/05/09* 415.41 | 3/06/09** 266.01 |
** The Concensus "new" bull market began on Monday, March 9, 2009.
NOTE: All above stocks have market capitalization of $100M+ except Akeena Solar, Amtel Systems
and Entech Solar. This listing is strictly informational and implies neither endorsement or disapproval of any stock listed. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment